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SBI (₹258.4)
SBI retained its ₹243-₹265 sideways move for the sixth consecutive week and rose 2.6 per cent last week. The 21-day moving average is flat, suggesting that the range-bound move would continue. However, the bias is bullish for a break above ₹265. This is evident from the Bank index which is giving bullish signals on the charts for a fresh leg of up-move. SBI may also ride the wave along with this index. A break above ₹265 can take it to ₹270 initially. Further strong break above ₹270 can target ₹290 and ₹300. Medium-term investors can hold the long positions. Retain the stop-loss at ₹210. Accumulate longs on dips near ₹245. On the other hand, if SBI breaks below ₹243, it may come under pressure in the near term for a fall to ₹240 or ₹235. However, a series of supports present between ₹240 and ₹235 is likely to limit the downside in the stock. So a further fall below ₹235 looks less probable at the moment. SBI is likely to reverse eventually higher from ₹235-₹240 in case it declines below ₹243 in the coming weeks.
RIL (₹1,064.4)
RIL tumbled 2.2 per cent on Friday, giving up all the gains made during the week. The near-term view will be negative as long as the stock trades below ₹1,100. Immediate support is between ₹1,055 and ₹1,050. If RIL manages to sustain above this support zone and reverses higher, a range-bound move between ₹1,050 and ₹1,100 is possible. But if the stock declines below ₹1,050, it may fall to ₹1,030 or ₹1,025. This will be a buying opportunity. The levels of ₹1,030 and ₹1,025 are strong supports, which can halt the fall and trigger a reversal. Medium-term investors can initiate fresh long positions near ₹1,055 with a stop-loss at ₹990. Accumulate longs near ₹1,035 if RIL extends the down-move, breaking below ₹1,050. On the upside, ₹1,100 and the region between ₹1,120 and ₹1,130 are the significant resistances. A break above ₹1,130 will boost the momentum to take the stock to ₹1,150 and ₹1,200 thereafter.
ITC (₹239.85)
The 21-day moving average played spoilsport by halting the recovery rally in ITC last week. The stock touched a high of ₹246.5 on Tuesday and reversed sharply lower, giving up all the gains. The immediate outlook is not clear. The stock hovers above a key near-term support level of ₹238. Whether the stock manages to sustain above this support or not will give a clear cue on the direction of move. A break below ₹238 take it to ₹235 initially. A break below ₹235 can drag the stock to ₹232, ₹230 or ₹228. A series of supports between ₹232 and ₹228 may slow down the pace of fall in ITC. A strong reversal from any of these supports may ease the downside pressure. Such a reversal can take the stock higher to ₹235 initially. If the stock manages to rise past ₹235, it can then target ₹240 and ₹245. The stock will need a strong break above the 21-week moving average at ₹248. The ensuing target on such a break is ₹255. The outlook will turn positive for the stock only if it breaks above the key resistance around ₹255.
Infosys (₹1,038.1)
Infosys was range-bound between ₹1,018 and ₹1,050 in the past week. The stock has closed on a mixed note and last week’s candle reflects indecisiveness. The immediate outlook is unclear. Near-term resistance is at ₹1,050. A strong break above this hurdle is needed for the stock to gain momentum and move higher to ₹1,080 or ₹1,085 in the short term. If the stock manages to break further above ₹1,085, it can extend the upmove to ₹1,100. The upside in the stock is expected to be capped at ₹1,100 at the moment. But inability to break above ₹1,085 may drag the stock once again to ₹1,050-₹1,040 or even lower. On the other hand, if the stock fails to break above ₹1,050 from current levels, it can remain under pressure for a fresh fall. The broader downtrend will also remain intact and the next key trendline support at ₹982 may be tested in such a scenario. A strong break below ₹982 will drag Infosys to ₹943 — the 200-week moving average or ₹913 — the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement support level.
Tata Steel (₹427.3)
Tata Steel surged 4.8 per cent intraweek to achieve the short-term target level of ₹430 on Thursday, before coming off slightly to close 3.7 per cent higher for the week. The 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement resistance at ₹431 is resisting the rally in the stock. Inability to break above this hurdle may trigger a short-term corrective fall in the coming weeks. A reversal from the current levels may drag the stock lower to ₹410 or even ₹400. Strong support is in the ₹400-₹390 zone which is more likely to limit the short-term downside in the stock. Fresh buying interest can emerge at lower levels in the ₹400-₹390 zone. Short-term investors can initiate fresh long positions near ₹400 and accumulate on dips near ₹390. Stop-loss can be placed at ₹365 for the target of ₹465. On the other hand, if Tata Steel manages to break above ₹431, the rally can extend to ₹450 and can target ₹485. Medium-term investors can continue to hold the long positions. Revise the stop-loss higher to ₹340 from ₹310.
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