Why 2016 could prove to be a hot year

El Nino is associated with warmer than normal sea surface temperature (SST) over the Equatorial East Pacific Ocean beginning from April-May of the year.

As we know, year 2015 was a very strong El Nino year. During such a year, the tropical Indian Ocean also develops warmer than normal temperatures, notably from September, the last month of the monsoon season.

The warming trend continues well into the following year in both the oceans – Pacific and Indian.

Measurements have shown that the tropical areas of Indian Ocean in January-March of 2016 were warmer than normal by half to one degree Celsius.

The ocean surrounding India shares its heat with the atmosphere in contact with it, which is expected to make the summer of 2016 very hot.

The slow rise in temperature from year to year due to global warming caused by the increase of green house gases like carbon dioxide and methane also contributes to make the summer of 2016 hot.

Meanwhile, the Met has already warned that above normal heat wave conditions are very likely over Central and North-West India during April to June this year.

This was stated in the first long-range forecast for the ‘hot weather season’ of 2016 issued by it recently. The Met had noted that 2015 was the third warmest year ever recorded since 1901.

The country has already experienced significantly above normal temperatures during the last two months of January and February 2016.

Going forward, during April to June this year, warmer than normal temperatures are expected in all meteorological sub-divisions of the country, the Met said.

The forecast indicates that during the hot weather season of 2016, temperatures in all sub-divisions are likely to be above normal.

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