Untimely cyclones disrupted monsoon winds over Kerala

Does bad luck happen in threes? It appears it does, judging from the impact of two typhoons (‘Sarika’ and ‘Haima’) in the South China Sea and one (‘Kyant’) in the Bay of Bengal on the ongoing North-East (October to December) monsoon.

A cyclone is a disruptive system that interferes with the normal wind flows of the season, changes tracks according to its whims even as it gains/loses strength along the way.

Even if it behaves and chooses to ride with the seasonal flows, it wreaks havoc along the coast, dumps most of the rain at one go at one place and leaves hardly anything for the hinterland.

If they drift away from the flows, they take away the rain with them elsewhere. This is what has happened with this year’s North-East monsoon, forcing a drying Kerala to declare the entire State as drought-hit for the first time.

“Cyclones are not the ideal way to kick off either the South-West (June to September) or the North-East monsoon,” notes S Sudevan, Director, Met Office, Thiruvananthapuram.

A low-pressure area/depression is a much weaker and slow-moving system but it is for the long haul, whether over sea or land, and ensures maximum possible spread of rain over a much larger area.

Sudevan points to a fresh storm developing in the Bay of Bengal and is worried that the little rain that Kerala is receiving currently might stop soon, judging from its away-going track.

Kerala has kicked off the North-East monsoon with a massive deficit of 69 per cent in the first month of October. This came on top of the phenomenal 33.7 per cent shortfall during the preceding June to September season.

Prospects for November month don’t look promising until the 12th, given that a fresh storm is in the works in the Bay. It will be at least November 10 or 12 when it dies out and flows can resume.

Thus, Kerala, a land of 44 rivers and a famed network of backwaters, is facing the spectre of drought. Successive failures of the monsoon have been made worse by poor water conservation practices.

Profligate ways with water and the increasing demand for the precious natural resource have landed the State in a situation where the two monsoon seasons are not sufficient to ensure adequate supplies.

The typical topography that aids massive rainwater run-off and near-total absence of conservation mechanism holds out long-term ramifications vis-a-vis per capita availability of drinking water.

The high population density has already brought down the per capita availability of rainwater to less than that of even Rajasthan. Only very little gets stored in the ground water aquifers.

Increasing instances of deforestation have hot helped matters either. Monsoon failures can only exacerbate the situation.

Sudevan says that the recommendation to declare drought ‘in advance’ was made just in case the situation in the rural interior worsened.

The coastal areas have been better off thanks to off and on rain. But the administration could not ignore the developing situation with respect to crops in the interior.

The call kicks off a provision for moratorium of up to one year on farm loans drawn from banks, including cooperative banks. Recovery procedures are frozen while loans are also rescheduled.

The State will now approach the Centre with a detailed memorandum seeking relief upon which a delegation will arrive here to assess the extent of damage.

An official spokesman said that the government has already commenced relief measures in the worst-hit areas, with water tankers plying to vulnerable areas including tribal settlements, rehabilitation centres, SC/ST colonies and schools.

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