Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is popular across Bihar – much as he was in 2010 – as an able administrator. But, ironically, days ahead of the State polls, opinion is divided on whether he can retain his chair.
Caste equations are crucial this time and both the JD(U)-RJD alliance and the NDA are strong on this count. Some are wary of the Janata Dal (United)’s alliance with Lalu Prasad — remembered as a “poor administrator” — though this alliance has given Mr. Kumar a strong caste coalition.
Yadavs number 13 per cent in Bihar and Mr. Kumar’s caste, the Kurmis, constitute barely 4 per cent of the State’s population. In other words, Mr. Kumar has a reputation, but no solid caste base.
The BJP, meanwhile, has an upper caste base of 14 per cent, but no chief ministerial candidate. But with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity intact in Bihar, the contest is wide open: this, even though Mr. Kumar remains unmatched in governance in Bihar.
“Since Modi is there, he will ensure that whoever is the Chief Minister from BJP in Bihar does good work,” a Chaurasia youth in Khagaria’s Maheshkhunt village says, describing it as a battle between “two good administrators”. If people vote for a good Chief Minister in the Vidhan Sabha poll, Mr. Kumar has a chance.
Jitan Ram Manjhi’s rebellion against Mr. Kumar has, however, deprived the latter of a vote bank among the Mahadalit Musahars.
Vijay Manjhi, a Musahar in Gaya’s Barkhaban village says: “This village will go with Jitan Ram Manjhi.” “Nitish Kumar gave scholarships and books for children and constructed roads,” said Prem Kant Chaudhri of Gaayghat’s Jaaran village located between Muzaffarpur and Darbhanga. This village seemed to back Mr. Kumar in the coming polls.
However, half an hour away, a group of Nishads — an EBC caste — rue the fact that Mr. Kumar had joined hands with Mr. Prasad. “Laluji just cracks jokes. He isn’t serious,” complains Chandra Sahni, adding that his caste people in the village are undecided on which alliance to back. Indeed, in last year’s general elections, after Mr. Kumar broke with the BJP and allied himself with long-time rival Mr. Prasad, the saffron party swept Bihar.
Now, Yadavs and Kurmis apart, Muslims, constituting 17 per cent of the population, are veering towards the JD(U)-RJD combine. But the alliance has taken away from Mr. Kumar a slice of legitimacy, as many believe that Bihar lost many years of progress under Mr. Prasad.
A Congress leader said: “Many EBCs see Yadavs as a dominant caste and may veer towards the BJP as they are wary of them.” The BJP-supporting dominant castes, Bhumihars and Rajputs, are smaller in number, he said.
If internal differences among backward castes could prevent the forward-vs-backward polarisation that Mr. Prasad has attempted to create, the upper castes are peeved with Mr. Kumar, as they see Mr. Prasad as being instrumental in their loss of power.
For Mr. Kumar, this alliance was a tough call, but with his own caste lacking the requisite numbers in a context where caste matters in politics, his choices were limited.
