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India, Indonesia and the Philippines will be Asia's 'tiger cubs' in 2018: Nomura

The 'tiger cubs' growth is likely to increase because of three factors - quantitative easing, export revival and a scope for expanding their fiscal policies.

December 08, 2017 / 05:39 PM IST

The Asian economy as a whole will expand in 2018, with India, Indonesia and the Philippines being the growth engines. On the other hand, the economies of China, Hong Kong and Singapore are likely to slowdown, broking firm Nomura said in its macro and markets outlook report for 2018.

Robert Subbaraman, Head of Emerging Markets Economics, Nomura said the firm was bullish on India, Indonesia and the Philippines. He said these three countries will be the "young tiger cubs" of Asia if they increase their public and private investment.

The 'tiger cubs' growth is likely to increase because of three factors - quantitative easing, export revival and a scope for expanding their fiscal policies, said Subbaraman, adding that Asia’s GDP had the potential to grow 8 percent in 2018.

For Indonesia, Nomura expects the "GDP growth to accelerate to 5.6 percent in 2018, driven by investment spending growth doubling" and for the Philippines, it has forecast that inflation is likely to exceed their 2-4 percent target next year. According to economic theory, if inflation increases, growth increases as well.

For India, Chief India Economist Sonal Varma said that the "disruptions” like goods and services tax (GST) and demonetisation were now making way for growth. India's growth is expected to increase and have an average growth of 7.5 percent in 2018. This will be "the start of a robust and enduring expansion," Varma said.

She said India's reform momentum making way for growth. She said, "demonetisation is still under process," but pointed that the transaction procedures were infusing more cash in the economy which is, in turn, was helping the cash-oriented sectors - construction, among others. GST has helped in bringing policy changes and the recapitalisation of banks reform will help giving growth capital to the sectors, she said.

Nomura analysts said that India was bullish both cyclically and structurally, and that the economy was in the early stage of a cyclical recovery.

For China, Chief China Economist Yang Zhao explained that the slowdown is because of the country's property sector.  Zhao said that there are high chances that the official data of the current year underestimated the housing prices and that the economy is likely to face the brunt of the slowdown next year.

However, he said, that the China's consumer-oriented sectors are likely to do well and will continue to keep pushing the country's growth.

Nidhi Chugh
Tags: #Economy
first published: Dec 8, 2017 05:33 pm

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