Karvy's report on rupee
Rupee Review: Risk aversion among investors led to a brisk fall in the equity indices across the board. Demand for safe havens like Gold and Yen led to appreciation in both the assets. Dollar has marginally depreciated as investors were shifting few of the holdings to Yen. Indian equity indices took another hit yesterday with the benchmark index falling by 97.00 points. Rupee on the other had remained largely range bound closing 1 paisa above the previous day’s close.
Outlook: Asian markets are trading on a mixed to negative note this morning after the US ended flat, pulling itself from the day’s lows. Concerns about global growth have led to a minor correction in the equity indices across the board for the last two day. Risk aversion in markets led to an uptick in safe haven assets like gold and Yen. SGX Nifty Dec futures are continuing to trade on a negative note at 8349.00 after another 100 point slump yesterday, and is expected to continue trending lower for today as well.
In terms of currency, Asian currencies are trading on a negative note with respect to the dollar. US dollar bounced back against all the major currencies after the US indices started their pull back. Japanese Yen is trading higher at 119.39 after making a low of 118.98 in yesterday’s session. Euro is trading at 1.2371 continuing to trade higher, and Pound at 1.5669 with respect to the US dollar. One month Rupee NDF is trading at 62.32 with a change of 12 paisa from yesterday’s close indicating a negative opening for the Indian rupee.
Important Economic data is to be released today: Japanese and China data this morning came in close to expectations with a bias towards the lower side. There is no major data to be released during the market hours, and mortgage applications data from the US is due later in the evening.
We expect the USDINR pair to open on a negative note and trading to be biased towards depreciation.
Technical Recommendation:
USDINR DEC: BUY 62.2-62.18 Target 62.57 Stop Loss 62.06
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