Despite Sartaj Aziz's comments, Modi govt to walk its Ufa talk with Pakistan

The Narendra Modi government’s spin doctors on Tuesday stoutly defended the joint statement issued after the India-Pakistan summit in Ufa (Russia) and downplayed Monday’s sabre-rattling by Pakistan Prime Minister’s advisor on national security and foreign affairs Sartaj Aziz and indicated that India will nonetheless go ahead with the 5-point Ufa roadmap.

Clearly, the Modi government realises that after its unilateral cancellation of the foreign secretary-level talks in Islamabad last August, calling off the proposed talks again even before these are yet to begin would be diplomatically unwise. More so because the Ufa summit between Modi and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif had taken place at India’s initiative.

The quick reaction of the US-led international community in welcoming the India-Pakistan summit in Ufa has further made it difficult for both India and Pakistan to wriggle out of the agreed Ufa roadmap. US Vice President Joe Biden was on Tuesday quoted as saying at a function in Washington that the Ufa talks would lead to more such dialogues in future. “The US strongly encourages both sides to build on this strategic avenue for peace,” Biden said.

Home Minister Rajnath Singh has also lauded PM Modi for his statesmanship in reaching out to Nawaz Sharif and remarked thus on Tuesday: “Our Prime Minister gave an example of statesmanship while meeting the Pakistani Prime Minister. He made an attempt to reach out.”

All this goes to show that the Ufa joint statement is cast in stone as far as the Modi government is concerned at present and India will go ahead with not only the National Security Advisor-level talks in New Delhi sometime later this month but also two other reach-out sessions planned with Pakistan at the level of BSF-Pakistan Rangers chiefs and Directors General of Military Operation.

Thus, all eyes will now be on proposed talks between Indian NSA Ajit Doval and his Pakistani counterpart Sartaj Aziz and possibly after these talks, the time and venue of the other two meetings would be decided.

The Modi government’s spin doctors have made light of Sartaj Aziz’s remarks which they see as an attempt to address Pakistan’s domestic constituency. They rejected the notion of Pakistan making a U-turn from the Ufa joint statement, maintaining that there was no question of Pakistan making a U-turn when the neighbour has not taken even the first turn.

They used cricket analogy to drive the point home, further saying it was unfair to speculate about the slog overs of the India-Pakistan match when the match had not even begun. Moreover, the match is not fixed, they maintained.

In other words, the movers and shakers of India’s Pakistan policy would much rather react to what Pakistan tells India through diplomatic channels rather than reacting to public remarks of Pakistani officials and policy makers which are aimed at Pakistan’s domestic constituency.

This is the way diplomatic engagements between two nations need to be seen. But the problem is that when the BJP was in the Opposition, it constantly threw barbs on the UPA government’s Pakistan policy and maintained steady pressure on the Manmohan Singh government. As a result, Manmohan Singh could never visit Pakistan during his entire decade-long tenure as prime minister.

Now that the political situation in India has reversed, the BJP finds itself at the wrong side of the stick with the Congress picking holes in Modi government’s Pakistan policy.

The India-Pakistan summit at Ufa is aimed at a long-term engagement as PM Modi has accepted PM Sharif’s invitation to attend the next SAARC summit in Pakistan, scheduled for next year. For this reason, the political stakes are high for both the sides.

New Delhi downplaying hawkish statements from Pakistani officials can thus be understandable. Besides, one should not forget that even the Pakistani government sidestepped controversial statements by Indian ministers in the run up to the Ufa summit and went ahead with the summit meeting on 10 July.

A high-octane event in the India-Pakistan context is slated for next week when Pakistan high commissioner in New Delhi hosts an Eid Milan party on 21 July. Much will depend on that event.

However, circumstances seem to be “conspiring” in favour of a positive India-Pakistan engagement as Kashmiri separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani has decided against attending the Eid party in protest against the Kashmir issue being “ignored” in the Ufa joint statement. The firebrand Geelani went on record with this remark: “The Kashmir issue is question of life and death for us. Nobody can take us for granted. And I will not attend the Eid Milan in New Delhi to register a symbolic protest.”

The India-Pakistan diplomatic season has begun in right earnest. The biggest fixture will be the NSA-level dialogue in New Delhi, possibly in the last week of this month. And this India-Pakistan match is not fixed.