Will the Nitish-Lalu alliance get the caste arithmetic right in Bihar?

In a bid to take on the BJP, that has emerged quite strong in Bihar, Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar have buried the hatchet and have decided to contest together in the upcoming by-elections in Bihar.

“A grand alliance among the JD(U), RJD and Congress has been clinched with the JD(U) and RJD getting four seats each, while the Congress will contest in the remaining two seats”, state unit JD(U) president Bashisth Narayan Singh told reporters.

The Times of India reports  JD(U) leader KC Tyagi as saying the two leaders spoke to each other on the phone and sealed the deal.

“Nitish had talked to Lalu for the first time after almost 20 years on June 18 to seek RJD support for the JD (U) candidates in Rajya Sabha byelections. Though the two leaders had met several times at social functions, they are yet to have a political meeting after 1994 when Nitish floated Samata Party. Nitish was called Lalu’s Chanakya in the 90s,” the report said.

When asked JD(U) leader Narayan refused to divulge the specific seats from which the respective parties would contest saying that the details would be announced later. “I have the list with me about specific assembly seats to be contested by the JD(U), RJD and Congress in the bypoll, but I will not throw light on it as of now,” Singh said asking the mediapersons to wait for some more days for announcement in this regard.

However a NDTV report says “The new alliance will be tested in assembly seats like Hajipur, which was won in 2010 by Nityanand Rai of the BJP, then a partner of the JD(U). Rai, a Yadav leader had taken away a chunk of Lalu Yadav’s votes. The new alliance now hopes to consolidate the Muslim, Yadav and backward caste votes.”

Nitish and Lalu’s strategy is not just to target the Muslims. They also plan to play the caste card to try and vanquish the BJP in the state. “Mandal train has started. Those willing to board are welcome while those not interested will miss it,” Lalu had told PTI recently. ‘Mandal’ symbolised political changes in early ’90s in Bihar in the wake of implementation of Mandal commission recommendations which provided reservations for OBCs in jobs. This move helped Lalu’s RJD rule in Bihar for 15 years.

However, the BJP is not really worried and thinks the Mandal issue has died down and it won’t affect them in anyway. Firstpost’s Manoj Kumar had in an earlier report said, “Yes, the electoral arithmetic of the Mandal warriors can go horribly wrong. They have milked the caste equations for far too long and the returns have been shrinking every election.”

Reports suggest that Nitish and Lalu will also be campaigning together for the upcoming by-polls. So only time will tell if their strategy can beat the BJP in Bihar.