 "Who will benefit from average polling in Kerala?")
Thiruvananthapuram: Even as polling draws to a close in Kerala, the northern parts of the state witnessed heavy polling while the response in the southern districts, except in some constituencies, was no better than lukewarm. As usual, both the ruling UDF (United Democratic Front) and its rivals, the LDF (Left Democratic Front), claimed that the voting trend would favour them.
Usually, it’s argued that a higher voter turnout is good for the LDF, since its constituents—CPM and CPI—are cadre-based parties. With this logic, the UDF should do well in most parts of the state except in constituencies where the polling was high; but the trend in the recent times shows that the voter-behaviour—low or high—could help both.
However, a higher turn-out can be interpreted as an anti-incumbency trend – an affirmative voice against the ruling Ooman Chandy government, since both the fronts had claimed that the results of the election would be a verdict on the state government’s performance.
Going by the anti-incumbency theory, the hilly district of Idukki should have polled a higher number of votes by now. The district saw the Church and opposition parties whipping up anti-government passion over the Kasturi Rangan report on Western Ghats. The polling percentage so far in the district has been less than 70 percent and the enthusiasm worse than last time.
Among the notable low-polling centres is the state capital Thiruvanathapuram, which witnessed hectic campaigning by Union Minister Shashi Tharoor and his CPI rival. The voter-turn out is yet to touch 70 percent here. In 2009, it was 73 percent. Many places in this constituency also witnessed thunderstorms which affected polling.
Interestingly, both the fronts claimed that they would win in all the 20 seats in the state. Union Minister AK Antony and many other Congress leaders said that the UDF would repeat its performance in 1977, when it had won all the seats in the state. In the last elections, the UDF had won 16 of the 20 seats.
Echoing Antony’s enthusiasm, the CPM state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan also claimed that the LDF would win all the seats while the CPI leader Pannyam Raveendran said that this election would be a Tsunami for the Congress.
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