West Bengal second phase polls: Will Congress beat TMC, retain strongholds?

The second phase of polls kick off in West Bengal on 24 April and like last time, the constituencies that are going to vote aren’t ones known to be Trinamool Congress strongholds. The West Bengal districts that go to vote tomorrow are Balurghat, Malda (north), Malda (south), Raigunj, Jangipur, Murshidabad. Except for Balurghat, whose sitting MP is Prasanta Kumar Majumdar of RSP, the rest of the constituencies are all held by the Congress.

Congress heavyweights have been traditional winners

All the constituencies going into polls tomorrow have traditionally been Congress strongholds even when CPM leader Jyoti Basu ruled the roost in Bengal. For example, Mausum Noor from Malda North easily slipped into the shoes of her uncle, powerful state Congress leader ABA Ghani Khan Chowdhury in 2009. Chowdhury, till he passed away in 2006, held Malda with in iron-fist, despite several attempts by the CPM to wrench the key constituency out of his control.

Similarly, Raigunj was the fiefdom of national Congress leader and former minister Priyaranjan Dasmunsi. However, after Dasmunsi was left in a vegetative state by a massive stroke, the constituency has remained loyal to its leader and had voted his wife, Deepa Dasmunsi to power in the LS polls.

Another Congress weight called the shots during polls in Jangipur which goes to polls tomorrow - President Pranab Mukherjee. Jangipur, which also happens to be Mukherjee’s birth place, has been unflinching in its support for UPA’s former Finance Minister. Mukherjee has won the seat several times and when he had to give it up to take over as the country’s President, his son, a greenhorn and little known political figure won due to the voters’ allegiance to Pranab.

The Murshidabad seat is held by Abdul Mannan Hossain and Malda (south) belongs to ABu Hasem Khan Choudhury.

Can Congress win this time without Trinamool Congress support?

Most of the constituencies that go into polls tomorrow have traditionally been Congress strongholds thanks to the party’s relationship with the minority community. Whereas Trinamool won, 19 seats in the last Lok Sabha polls, the Congress won 6 and CPI(M) had 9 seats. However, the strong anti-CPM wave that had already started brewing in West Bengal, made it easy for the Congress to retain its seats. The Trinamool Congress didn’t make too many efforts to disturb the Congress’ vote-share in the state either.

However, the scenario has vastly changed since then. Not only is the Congress faced with a strong anti-incumbency wave everywhere in the country, the Trinamool too has snapped its alliance with the party. In the last polls, the Trinamool and Mamata’s tempestuous anti-CPM rhetoric hugely benefitted the Congress too. The Congress national leadership was relentless in its praises for Mamata, therefore coming across as Trinamool’s political friends. The positioning paid off and Congress easily won the seats with holding TMC’s hands and riding the anti-CPM wave. This time around, Congress is as big an adversary for Mamata Banerjee as CPM is and she is not going to spare the party in her campaigns for snubbing her many demands. Clubbed with the anti-incumbency, Congress will have a tough time defending its bastion.

For seats like young Mausam Noor’s, who basically won with Mamata Banerjee blessings, the Congress needs to worry. Deepa Dasmunsi, a fierce critic of Mamata Banerjee, is not known to be either approachable or friendly to her electorate, something that will definitely play off against her. Also, being an unapologetic critic of Banerjee, will work against her.

Also, Mamata Banerjee has aced Congress’ secular games in West Bengal. Some would say she has even better the game by several notches. A move that will definitely work against the Congress this time.

The CNN IBN poll tracker indicated that the Trinamool will get anything between 23-29 seats, the Congress 4-7 and the Left Front 7-13 votes. IBN live reports: “The survey shows that the Muslim votes are divided between TMC-Congress and Left across West Bengal. The TMC is expected to get 35 per cent, the Congress 28 per cent and the Left 26 per cent of the Muslim votes respectively. The BJP is likely to get 5 per cent Muslim votes.”

Though the BJP is a non-entity in West Bengal and Modi not a polling issue, the Congress doesn’t stand to benefit from it at all.