In Madhepura Sharad Yadav feels the heat of severed BJP ties

Sharad Yadav can’t express what worries him most. After all, it was officially under his stewardship, that the Janata Dal (U) decided to sever its 17 year old relationship with the BJP. His senior colleague and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s desire to emerge as an alternate ‘secular pole’ of Indian politics suddenly threw Yadav out of his revered NDA convener’s job. But he now is facing bigger problems in Madhepura where he is locked in a triangular contest.

Seven time MP (last four from Madhepura) Sharad Yadav’s success was rooted in his ability to be on the right side of political and social equations. He never had a mass following in Bihar, least of all among his own caste. But first a buoyant Lalu Prasad Yadav gave him a foot up, which was only heightened by the JD (U)-BJP combine which gave him the support of upper castes, non-Yadav OBC and also a small section of Yadavs.

This times around however, his electoral ties appear to be thin and rather weak.

Residents of Madhepura have a saying:  Rome Pope ka, Saharasa Gope Ka (Rome belongs to Pope, Madhepura belongs to Gope  (Yadav).

Since 1952, with the sole exception of Archarya Kripalani in 1957, this constituency has not elected a single non-Yadav candidate. Sharad fits the bill, but in Pappu Yadav he  faces a formidable fellow caste challenger. As a representative of Nitish Kumar, Sharad Yadav is at a serious disadvantage. In Bihar, Yadavas – who have enjoyed the fruits of power for 20 years and consider themselves the ruling class – consider Kumar enemy number one.

Lalu’s portrayal of himself as a victim of conspiracy is also gaining traction among Yadavas. Besides Sharad Yadav’s subcaste is Kisnaut, whose numerical strength is far less than that of  Pappu’s subcaste Majnaut, which accounts for 80 percent of the Yadav population in Madhepura.  Pappu’s wife Ranjita Ranjan is a Congress (RJD ally) candidate from the neighbouring Supaul constituency.

The BJP, on the other hand, has gambled by fielding a non-Yadav candidate, Vijay Singh Kushwaha, husband of JD(U) minister Renu Kushwaha who has since resigned from Nitish’s government. Renu represents the Bihariganj assembly segment in the Madhepura parliamentary constituency. This was one key segment gave a substantive lead to Sharad Yadav in previous elections. Now this cushion is gone.

For the BJP,  it is the first time that it is contesting an election here, but it hopes the Modi factor will bring together and drive up the non-Yadav OBC and upper caste votes to create history. “A victory in Madhepura will be biggest manifestation of Modi wave in these elections”, says a senior Bihar BJP functionary. Take Murho for instance – the native village of BP Mandal, who was the author of the Mandal commission report. Two of BP Mandal’s grandsons Suraj Yadav and Anand Mandal have turned to the BJP and were aspirants for a party ticket in these elections.

Radhesyam Singh, a poor farmer, says that the Modi wave has ignited a long cherished desire to get rid of the Yadav’s  dictatorship. “The BJP is one good choice. This is possible if we all vote together as a block.”

It is therefore very important for  Sharad Yadav to generate upper caste support – now without the BJP cushion.

There is also great deal of talk on as to why Narendra Modi does not plan to campaign in Madhepura.

Vijay Singh Kushwaha was given a warm welcome by Modi during a public rally in Purnia and so BJP supporters expect Modi to come campaigning here. But Modi is coming to Araria and Bhagapur on Tuesday and is skipping Madhepura. There are too many theories, all unconfirmed.

Is the BJP going soft on Sharad? The JD(U) president, after all has long standing cordial relations with all BJP leaders. Though BJP and JD(U) have parted ways Sharad’s personal relations with top BJP leaders are intact. Is that a reason why Modi is avoiding Madhepura?