In Delhi AAP losing to BJP: Why it may spell doom for the party

Clearly buoyed by their experience at the Delhi Assembly election, the Aam Aadmi Party has fielded candidates across the country. Party chief Arvind Kejriwal himself is taking on Narendra Modi in Varanasi.

However, if we go by the results of the Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll survey, it shows that AAP may not be able to exactly repeat history as even its hold on Delhi looks shaky.

The poll reveals that 47 percent of the respondents said that it was not the right decision by Kejriwal to resign as chief minister over the Janlokpal bill, while 34% said he did the right thing. Despite being critical of Kejriwal’s decision to quit, 68 percent were of the opinion that they were satisfied with AAP’s performance as a government for the 49 days that it did function.

Meanwhile, the survey showed that in Delhi the biggest issue on the minds of people was price rise.

Political scientist Sandeep Shastri during a debate on CNN-IBN said, “The tracker shows that the goodwill for AAP is very clearly visible. But, the Delhi voter is also in mood of the Lok Sabha elections. That factor is also propelling the way they are looking at the elections.”

Professor Dipankar Gupta was of the opinion that people were upset with the fact that Kejriwal resigned. “I was upset when Kejriwal resigned. People did not like he fact that he resigned but they think that the 49 days were of his government were good. Because they felt that AAP was doing a good job, they were upset when Kejriwal resigned.”

Economist Surjeet Bhalla said, “AAP’s entry into politics has had a positive effect. However Kejriwal quitting was seen by everyone as a political move by a man in a hurry.”

After it was formed, AAP saw huge support for from the youth in Delhi. But the poll tracker shows that the youth base is moving away, and towards the BJP.

Swapan Dasgupta was of the opinion that AAP was rebuffed over Kejriwal’s resignation as chief minister. “When it comes to political instincts Kejriwal was consistently wrong. He unilaterally went ahead with his resignation after his dharna at Rail Bhavan. He seems to have been rebuffed by voters of Delhi on this issue,” said Dasgupta.

“When Kejriwal formed government in Delhi, he had an alliance with juggi jhopri colonies, and the RWAs and the gated colonies. They have jettisoned one for the other as both cannot go together,” said Dasgupta.

The polls survey shows, in terms of vote share, the Congress is doing miserable with only 22%, the BJP has a whopping 40% and AAP 29%. This is bad news for the Congress that had swept Delhi in 2009 with all 7 seats.

Rajeeva Karandiker gave the seat shares. “It means 3-2 seats for BJP, 2-3 AAP and 0-1 for the Congress. However the Delhi geographic distribution is not uniform. There are concentrated pockets where AAP is popular. So the numbers may change.”

“AAP does not seem to have a major role when it comes to the Central government. For Lok Sabha polls, the key is BJP and Congress. When we come to Assembly, there is 6% gap between AAP and BJP, with AAP being ahead. It is a clear conscious decision that Delhi is taking,” said Shastri.

Does this mean AAP is only a regional party? “Most people are saying we will vote for AAP for local elections and for LS polls we will vote for Modi. However AAP cannot be called regional as a regional player in Delhi is different. AAP was able to make an impact, but that would not have happened if it were not Delhi,” said Gupta.

Bhalla was of the opinion that AAP may not remain the favourite choice as the Lok Sabha election results may reflect on the Assembly polls. “Basically the disgruntled Congress voter is now an AAP voter in Delhi. I have always maintained that they are not the B-team of the Congress. But, Lok Sabha results will dominate the Assembly elections. If AAP does as badly as the survey suggests they are finished.”