Elections 2014: Why Modi can't afford to dump Naidu

Hyderabad: Close to a week after the TDP and the BJP hammered out a seat-sharing arrangement in the Telangana and Seemandhra regions, their alliance appeared on the verge of collapse when Chandrababu Naidu, the TDP chief, frothed at the mouth against the partner for violating the rules of engagement.

The BJP decided to swallow the insult and placate him instead of launching a scathing counter attack. For now, the relationship between the parties is on the mend.

However, not many see this development as anything beyond facile posturing. Both parties are at a critical juncture and neither can afford to let go of the other.

The BJP’s peace gesture seems to have been guided by it prime ministerial aspirant Narendra Modi. The shrewd politico that he has proven to be, Modi knows the rule of ‘win a few and lose a few’. So he has shunned ego – for those not in the know, the TDP chief had minced no words in demanding his ouster as the chief minister of Gujarat after the post-Godhra carnage - and embraced Naidu.

The pre-election pact with the TDP means a lot for him. Here’s why:

1. Modi, an anathema for many ‘secular’ politicians and intellectuals, could wash some of the dirt that is glued to his political personality by wangling a friendship with Chandrababu Naidu. Modi is flaunting that at least 25 small and big parties have come forth to join hands with the BJP in a pre-poll alliance.

2. Naidu was the convener of United Front and eventually was a key-player in the Atal Behari Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance. His stature would come in handy for Modi to flaunt his ability to befriend anybody. Plus, Naidu’s political reach is wide.

3. Modi is surreptitiously waging a war against stalwarts within his party and Chandrababu Naidu’s endorsement to his leadership is very crucial.

Therefore, Modi will never want to break up with the pre-poll alliance with the TDP. Astute politician and a master strategist that he is, Naidu is well aware of this fact. That’s precisely the reason why he wanted to give an impression among people that he was ready to rock the BJP’s boat, no matter what is in store for him at the hustings.

In fact, Naidu was seen bending backwards while forging an alliance with the BJP. His action in conceding 47 Assembly seats and eight Lok Sabha seats in Telangana and 15 Assembly seats and five Lok Sabha seats in Seemaandhra region to the BJP was seen as a giving in too much for a party that has no locus standi in the combined state of Andhra Pradesh.

However, the subterfuge employed by Naidu in arm-twisting the BJP surely made the top echelons of the party that is raring to come to power, indignant. Naidu remained silent until the accord with the BJP was frozen in Telangana. By announcing that the TDP, if voted to power, would have a person from a Backward Class as the chief minister, he had already made the marriage between the two parties look conditional. The BJP had no choice but to accept it grudgingly.

Once the nomination process was complete in Telangana, the TDP chief began throwing tantrums. He was cut up with the BJP for putting his sister-in-law Purandeswari, NTR’s daughter, in the electoral fray.

He particularly was distraught with the denial of the BJP ticket to Raghurama Krishnam Raju, a close relative of KVP Ramachandra Rao, a Congress Rajya Sabha member and the late YS Rakasekhara Reddy’s confidante. For the record, Raju has filed nominations as a BJP candidate and also as a TDP candidate, much to the chagrin of the BJP leadership which has fielded another industrialist Gokaraju Ganga Raju from Narsapur Lok Sabha constituency.

Naidu has lured Raju from the YSR Congress into his fold and routed his entry into the opposite camp through the BJP. When things seemed difficult, he has chosen to wield the stick. He went hammer and tongs against the BJP at a public meeting in Vizianagaram district some three days ago, deliberately pressing the rumour mills into action and reprimanding the BJP for acts of ‘omission and commission’.

The reaction was quick and purgative. Prakash Javadekar swung into action to mollify the angry Naidu. His parleys indeed bore fruit. The BJP has given up two assembly and one Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh. The TDP has fielded its candidates in at least seven assembly seats and a Lok Sabha seat given to the BJP in adjustment to keep the bargain on the boil.

When BJP’s veteran leader M Venkaiah Naidu, who is chiefly responsible for bringing both parties together and cobbling a pact, however, hasn’t taken the impish act of Chandrababu Naidu easy. He has announced that the list of 175 candidates of the BJP is finalised and is sent to the State unit and the party may go it alone in the polls.

Jolted by this, CHandrababu Naidu has been quick to set the house in order. He knows he shouldn’t stretch it too much, as he needs Modi’s popularity to impress the urban electorate, as much as Modi wants his support to prove that he is not an “untouchable”.

It is after all, a marriage of convenience for both leaders. This is the answer of the math, while rest is all just the working.