Bandra East by-poll: Can Narayan Rane rescue Congress amid MIM threat?

Mumbai: Former chief minister and senior Congress leader Narayan Rane is hoping to revive his decimated political career by winning the bypoll for the Bandra (East) constituency. However, his fate will depend upon the role of MIM in the election because it seems to be emerging as a deciding factor in the election.

Rane is pitted against Shiv Sena’s Trupti Sawant, the widow of former MLA Bala Sawant, and MIM’s Rahbar Khan. In October 2014, Sena’s Bala Sawant had got 41,388 votes and had defeated BJP’s Mahesh Parkar by 15,000 votes. While Khan received 23, 976 votes in 2014 assembly elections and was placed third, BJP and Congress got 25,791 and 12,229 votes respectively.

For the bypoll, while the BJP is supporting the Sena candidate, NCP has extended its support to Rane. The constituency, mainly dominated by Maharashtrians from the Konkan region, Dalits and Muslims, has around 80,000 Muslim and around 50,000 Dalit voters in the constituency.

Rane had contested the 2014 assembly elections from Kudal constituency in Sindhudurg district, his home turf, but was defeated by Sena’s Vaibhav Naik by a margin of 9,000 votes. Congress legislators say that despite being main opposition in Maharashtra assembly, its voice is not audible. Rane’s victory will mark the party’s revival in state as he has the knack of raising various issues and cornering the ruling party in state, they say.

Congress leaders say that the MIM will not make much difference this time in the election and appear to be confident of Rane’s victory.

“Rane, a veteran leader, will get votes of Marathi, Dalits, Muslims and North Indian votes. The BJP government that has withdrawn reservations for Muslims but the MIM legislators were quiet on the issue in the state Assembly and outside though they were elected on Muslim votes. The MIM also did not raise any anti-minority issues,” said Krishna Hegde, Congress spokesperson.

He further added that the Congress candidate got less votes last time as the party had given a new candidate.

In the 2014 Assembly election, MIM won two seats in Maharashtra, Byculla in Mumbai and Aurangabad Central in Marathwada region. It also gave big scare in few other seats to other candidates.

Now, the MIM is highlighting Sena-BJP’s ‘anti-minorities’ moves in its poll campaign and also attacking the Congress-NCP reminding the voters of their 15 years ‘misrule’ in Maharashtra. “Muslim know how committed we are to their cause and they will surely vote for us,” said Waris Pathan, MIM MLA from Byculla.

Last week, MIM leader Akbaruddin Owaisi also held a rally for the party’s candidate. He slammed the Congress for fielding Rane and said that it would not have fielded a candidate for the bypoll if a Muslim candidate would have been fielded in his place.

Shiv Sena is banking on the hardcore Shiv Sainiks, total votes the Sena and BJP candidates got in 2014 assembly election and also the division of Muslim votes. “We are concentrating on our hard core vote base. Sawant, as a corporator, had done lot of good work in the Muslim ward in the constituency and they have sympathy for him,” said Anil Parab, a senior Shiv Sena leader and Member of Legislative Council.

Parab further added that BJP and RPI led by Ramdas Athawale’s support will come in handy for winning the seat. Mumbai BJP president Ashish Shelar, BJP MP Poonam Mahajan have campaigned so far in the constituency and BJP Minister Prakash Mehta and Vinod Tawde are likely to come in next few days, he said.

BJP leaders said that if Sena wins the seat, it will take credit for it and will also have an edge in the state government and in the upcoming Mumbai Municipal Corporation’s election. If Rane wins, then he will pose a big challenge to the state government as an opposition, said a BJP leader.

Political observers say that it is an existential fight for MIM as it will show whether they still can retain the votes they got in 2014 assembly election and their popularity among Muslim youths. For Rane, the by-poll is a battle for survival while for Shiv Sena it could be a sign of things to come if it loses in what some now see as a bastion.