Stokes absence sets selection poser

Like your health and the brake cables in your car, there are some things you appreciate more in their absence. So it is with Ben Stokes. While Stokes has yet to nail his limited-overs international career - his statistics are modest and his last four deliveries were hit for six - you can perhaps best judge his value to the England side by the difficulty they have in trying to replace him.

Without Stokes, absent from the Royal London ODI series as he recovers from knee surgery, it is desperately hard for England to balance their side. They face the choice of either playing just five bowlers, with Joe Root in reserve, or weakening their batting in order to squeeze in the extra bowler should one of the five experience injury or an off day.

What they have confirmed is that Jos Buttler will keep wicket and Eoin Morgan will bat at No. 4. While they could open the batting with Moeen Ali, who has two ODI centuries in the top order, it seems likely they will stick with the opening pair of Alex Hales and Jason Roy who have set the tone for so much of the improvement in recent times.

And while they could bat Moeen, David Willey or Chris Woakes at No. 6 and make room for five other bowlers, it seems more likely that they will make use of Jonny Bairstow's outstanding form, bat him in the top six and go with just the five bowlers. Bairstow is, therefore, set to be the beneficiary of Stokes' absence.

In normal circumstances, you might expect England to include two spinners. But given the wet weather the Nottingham area has experienced in recent days - the groundsman reckons the pitch has had four hours of sunshine since June 10 - there is a strong case for playing four seamers and just one spinner. Whether that is Moeen - at No. 10, the highest rated ODI bowler in this series - or Adil Rashid is debatable: Moeen has the better economy rate (4.91 compared to Rashid's 5.89) but Rashid the marginally better strike-rate (45.10 compared to 46.20).

Their batting averages hardly separate them, either. Moeen's 27.61 looks better than Rashid's 24.50, but if you include only innings made by Moeen at No. 7 - his likely position - his average drops to just 19.10. He remains more likely to play, alongside Steven Finn, Willey, Woakes and Chris Jordan, but it is not a straightforward decision.

The balance issue is rendered more difficult by the form of the captain. Morgan has now gone 18 international innings without a half-century - a run that extends back to November and the first ODI of the series against Pakistan - and, in the South Africa ODI series, averaged only 12.80. He enjoyed a strong English season in 2015, scoring a century and seven half-centuries in 11 successive ODI innings, but given he averaged just 18.00 in the World Cup, he needs a good series here to prevent the doubts over his position gathering. On form, it is hard to justify him batting above either Buttler or Bairstow.

In such circumstances, there might have been a case for recalling Samit Patel or Ravi Bopara to bat in the top six and offer some extra overs. But it seems their time has gone. Right or wrong, it could be seen as a retrograde step.

England are, after all, only a year into their brave new world. While results have been patchy - they have lost their last three ODIs and are rated below fifth-placed Sri Lanka in the ICC rankings - they have identified a group of players they hope will take them into the Champions Trophy (which, it might be noted, would have been ruined by rain had it been held this year) next year and the World Cup in 2019. England, currently No. 6, could go ahead of Sri Lanka in the ODI rankings if they win this series by a margin of two games or more.

"Ben leaves a huge hole," Morgan said. "He is a key member of our side. It'd be the same thing if the likes of Moeen Ali went down. Having Moeen batting at possibly six or seven is a luxury when he's a frontline spin bowler.

"We're still at the beginning of building hopefully what will be a successful campaign in the 2019 World Cup. It's important for us not only to stick with the same group of players in order to grow their experience but also to find some consistency in our performances.

"We're 12 months down the road and we have built a lot of confidence. There's a bit more expectation on us as a side and it's important to relish that expectation. The Champions Trophy is this time next year and the World Cup is two years later so as the home side we're looking to put in performances so that people don't see us as outsiders."

Whatever the final selection, we can expect England to continue the same bold cricket that has characterised their performances over the last 12 months. While it is hard to believe the Trent Bridge pitch will have pace and firmness of recent tracks here - Nottinghamshire scored 445 and 415 in consecutive 50-over innings at the start of this month; their opponents replied with 425 and 379 respectively - it still seems reasonable to expect England to respond to every challenge by attacking more.

"We're trying to change the mentality," Morgan said. "The mentality was, that if you're getting beaten around the park, you might try and bowl tight and move things around. But actually trying to get the batsman out is still a priority.

"It's the same with the batting. If we're three down and you get bowled a half-volley, you still have to hit it. It's part and parcel of changing the mindset of the side.

"I went straight from the one-day series and played a lot of county cricket last summer and the way England played had set the agenda about the brand of aggressive cricket we were playing. Everybody seemed to relate to it. A lot of the younger guys were loving it. It is very important to connect with county cricket because we can sometimes become detached and that is not good for anybody."

Everywhere you look around the counties, the limited-overs game is being played with more belief and confidence than at any time in memory. Emboldened by events in the last 12 months - the revolution of the New Zealand ODI series, the progress of the World T20, the McCullum-isation of English cricket - players have bought into the more positive method demonstrated by Morgan and co. The mentality of English cricket has changed. Whatever the results, they have become a vastly more entertaining side to watch.