Has AIMIM run its course? Experts believe so

After its spectacular political opening in Maharashtra, the Bandra (East) bypoll was supposed to be a major battle for the All-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). But to paraphrase TS Eliot, it ended not with a bang but a whimper.

The Owaisi-led hardline outfit's decisive defeat hints that the party's rabble-rousing politics may have run its course for the present. The drubbing, which saw the AIMIM's votes fall by over 8,000 compared to last year's assembly elections, exposes its limitations in Maharashtra's political ecosystem, and suggests that it may have to change its style of politics to stay relevant.

The Owaisi brothers had campaigned extensively in Bandra, with Telangana MLA and party's stormy petrel Akbaruddin Owasi staying put in the city, addressing public meetings in Muslim pockets. The neglect of minorities, the BJP-Shiv Sena government's decision to scuttle the quota for Muslims and the ban on beef were the issues the AIMIM focussed on.

However, the votes polled by party's Raja Rehbar Khan dropped from 23,976 in the assembly polls to just 15,050 now.

While a victory defeating the Sena in its backyard and former chief minister Narayan Rane (Congress) would have added to its tally of two in the legislature, a strong showing would have served as a morale booster in the Aurangabad civic polls, due later this month, and the BMC elections in early 2017, and added grist to its plans to expand nationally.

Though AIMIM leaders, such as MLA from Malakpet in Hyderabad Ahmed bin Abdullah Balala, who had camped in Mumbai with Akbaruddin for the campaign, attributed the defeat to the party's "lack of resources" vis-a-vis other mainstream political formations, Muslim leaders say the reasons run deep.

"Voters have realised that voting for the AIMIM will not lead to development. In the assembly elections, people voted for them on emotional grounds and because they were angry at the Congress and wanted to teach it a lesson. Plus, they did not have any options," said Shabbir Ansari of the influential All-India Muslim OBC organisation.

Incidentally, Ansari, who had declared his support for the Sena in Bandra, predicted that the AIMIM's influence among Muslims would gradually decline.

"Ground realities are different, the AIMIM is petering out," claimed a Samajwadi Party leader, adding that "secular votes had consolidated with the Congress". Rumours about the AIMIM being hand-in-glove with the Sena-BJP to aid communal polarisation for mutual benefit may have also led to floating voters deserting the party, he claimed. SP's Abu Asim Azmi, who has found himself in controversy in the past over his polarising, incendiary speeches, had campaigned for Rane.

The SP leader added that in the mixed areas that make up the assembly segment, the AIMIM's presence had led to Hindu votes consolidating in favour of the Sena. "However, young voters have been swayed by the AIMIM," he said, adding that the Owaisi-led party's lack of grassroots organisation had also cost them dear.

A senior Congress leader, who had worked to attract Muslim voters to the party, said the best take-away from the elections was the party regaining minority support. "The AIMIM's fundamentalist politics may have run its course," he said, adding that the party needed to focus on bread-and-butter issues to stage a comeback.

However, AIMIM MLA from Byculla Waris Pathan attributed their defeat to a lower voting percentage, adding that they had managed to retain their core voters. "We could get over 15,000 votes despite fighting alone," said Pathan, denying allegations that the party relied on jingoism. "We spoke on issues of development," he said, adding that the defeat would not impact their fortunes in the local body polls.