A dialogue with JC | Results of Rajasthan bypolls to shape up the national politics

Is 3-0 debacle of BJP in Rajasthan byelections a big defeat? Is it a warning bell for Narendra Modi-Amit Shah 2019 plan? Will Narendra Modi be able to garner 25 seats for BJP from Rajasthan? If that doesn’t happen, from where will this deficit be covered?

JC: Certainly the defeat of BJP is a warning bell for Modi and Amit Shah...Amit Shah was hoping to win 15 out of 25 seats from Rajasthan...but the way Congress won in the byelections, it doesn’t look that BJP will be able to win 7-8 seats in today’s situation...in the next elections, people are expecting that BJP would be able to win 245 seats instead of existing 282 seats...it will not get complete majority...it will again form the government with its allies being the single largest party...definitely it is a warning signal for Modi-Amit Shah.

Will Rajasthan’s defeat have an impact on 2018 elections in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh? 

JC: Naturally defeat in Rajasthan will not be limited to Rajasthan...now elections are being held in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh...then it can be said that there will be impact on these states...in Madhya Pradesh Congress has won 8 out of 9 seats in by elections in 3-4 years...Shivraj Singh is losing despite being popular...likewise Ajit Jogi is throwing challenge on Raman Singh...how much negative impact this defeat bears, only time can tell.

Is there any chance of leadership change in Rajasthan? ...and if that happens will there not  be similar demand from Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Haryana?

JC: I don’t think even after such a crushing defeat, there is any consideration on changing the leadership of Vasundhara Raje...in last 4 years high command had thought of leadership change but could not affect it...in Rajasthan there is no alternative to Vasundhara Raje in BJP.

Will the BJP state president be changed in Rajasthan and will Vasundhara Raje send Ashok Parnami to Rajya Sabha?

JC: In today’s situation, it’s not possible to change the CM...nor any special message would be conveyed by changing Ashok Parnami...and even if they change, it doesn’t seem there will be any major impact on BJP.

Is the organisational structure of BJP in shambles in Rajasthan...is Chandrashekhar playing his role?

JC: BJP worked in this by-election but RSS didn’t get active...party has to be built in a fresh manner...party organisation and RSS didn’t  work as per the expectations.

Why RSS didn’t play its role in by elections in Rajasthan? Has RSS got distracted from BJP in Rajasthan?

JC: RSS is a riddle in Madam’s life...she tries her best to persuade RSS... she has gone to Jaipur’s Bharti Bhawan for at least a dozen times. But the kind of relationship which should be there between the two could not be struck...Ashok Parnami tried to improve the relationship between Madam and RSS...but RSS couldn’t get active as per the expectations.

Do you think the development of Rajasthan has frozen after the moral defeat of BJP, 10 months before the November-December elections?

JC: The common man has to pay for the defeat of BJP...all the development work in government have been stuck...in a way the government has been thrown out of power despite being on the ruling side...common man will have to pay for it...due to this defeat development of Rajasthan has been pushed back by one year and 10 months.

Can a government really win next election on development agenda? Will there be any populist announcements in the Rajasthan budget on February 12?

JC: Modi is a Prime Minister who speaks about development...Ashok Gehlot had executed a lot of public welfare programmes during his tenure but lost badly...Madam has rolled out so many schemes but lost the by elections...then I don’t think any government can win election on the basis of development...winning elections is an art and if someone wants to learnt it, he should go to Amit Shah. 

After losing the by elections, Vasundhara Raje is working on which winning formula for November-December elections?

JC: These days who-so-ever goes to Madam, she tells everyone- before asking for transfer or postings first tell me what is the winning formula...how to regain the lost power...today Madam is out on s search for winning formula...a senior leader shared with me about the winning formula that Madam should take everyone along...power should shared with everyone...work of ministers should be done...from Ghanshyam Tiwari to Om Prakash Mathur- everyone should be connected...RSS should be connected...time has come when delivery should precede the image...a BJP leader has shared winning formula in a letter to Madam that she should organise a rally of 1 lakh people and announce her resignation... sit at home for a month and then come out on a Thanks campaign ... then see how crowd swells.

Is it true that BJP lost due to corruption charges and unpopularity of MLAs in their respective segments? Is any damage control possible now?

JC: If the party wins, it is credited to Modi and Vasundhara Raje and now if it’s defeat, one should accept this also...it won’t work just by saying that MLAs didn’t perform. This time people are demanding that 70% MLAs should not be repeated...people are suggesting to bring new team. 

Despite being regarded as a secular  chief minister, why she failed to garner Muslim votes in these three byelections?

JC: This is a tragedy that perhaps Vasundhara Raje could not get Muslim votes...perhaps the reason behind this is that Muslim faces in her cabinet on whom Madam trusted could not deliver...they couldn’t even gather courage to reach out to Muslim community...her team failed her. This is for the first time Muslims didn’t vote in her favour during her tenure.

Why Narendra Modi-Amit Shah didn’t campaign in these lost seats? Did they have pre estimation of defeat? 

JC: Modi and Amit Shah are considered connected with public and they know the pulse of public...you can say that their not coming for campaign in these seat bore negative impact on the party.

Will Congress end up losing the battle due to bickering and infighting in the party? After winning three by elections, Congress is working on which winning formula in Rajasthan?

JC: The winning formula for Congress is that the high command should execute power sharing between Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. If this doesn’t happen, they will finish off due to infighting...they will keep on fighting between themselves till the time high command doesn’t execute power sharing between the camps. If Congress has to embrace power, it will have to adopt power sharing formula between Gehlot, Pilot and C P Joshi. 

In last few days, suddenly Vasundhara Raje has started reaching out to Congress leaders, what are its political meanings?

JC: Whenever Madam gets time she reaches out...Madam’s acceptability is large based...there is no political message in it... these people are not going to leave Congress to join BJP...this is just social connect.

Is Congress high command is reassessing popularity of Gehlot and Pilot?

JC: After Gujarat results, Congress has conducted reassessment...who is more popular between Gehlot and Pilot...who is popular among works and who is popular amongst public...at some point of time there was a communication gap between Ashok Gehlot and Rahul Gandhi...perhaps Rahul didn’t use to like him...Gehlot has washed away this perception... today Gehlot is friend, philosopher and guide of Rahul... in the reassessment it was found that Gehlot has more winnability in public.

Who will be the chief ministerial face for Coverage between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot?

JC: The chief ministerial face will not be announced here...the election would be fought in the collective leadership of CP Joshi, Mohan Prakash and other leaders...the main common impression is that the contest is between Gehlot and Pilot...name of CP Joshi is not being taken as CM candidate. 

After Gujarat, Rahul is bestowing new responsibilities on Ashok Gehlot at national level...what is the meaning of this?

JC: In Delhi politics, Gehlot is a part of Rahul Gandhi group...Gehlot has been appointed as chairman of preparation committee of Congress session. These indicate that Rahul is increasing Gehlot’s role at national level...Gehlot’s heart and soul beats for Rajasthan...he still considers himself as a strong contender of Chief Minister.

Gehlot was not part of delegation of winning candidates of by elections which met Sonia-Rahul on February 5. CP Joshi and Pilot was there with them. How do you look at this turn of event?

JC: This was a googly of Ashok Gehlot...no one could understand that...people are making out that Gehlot was not properly invited...it can’t be said with certainty what is the meaning of Gehlot’s googly. 

Has Sachin Pilot got Rahul Gandhi’s absolute assurance or is he over confident in his behaviour and conduct?

JC: He is looking over confident...as if he has become the CM and only oath is to be taken...as far as Rahul Gandhi is concerned, he has given Pilot the assurance three times that you keep on doing work, you will be the CM.

What is the impact of Amit Shah’s regular presence in Rajya Sabha?

JC: Amit Shah is the uncrowned King of Rajya Sabha....his visit to Rajya Sabha is an event...Amit Shah has become a visible leader these days...Bhupendra Yadav is considered as shadow of Amit Shah... there is a revival in the BJP camp after the entry of Amit Shah in Rajya Sabha.