Punjab Elections 2017: 7 factors that could help Captain Amarinder Singh win

Exit polls need to be taken with a pinch of salt and a heavy dose of cynicism but at least in Punjab, it follows the pattern that has suggested that SAD-BJP alliance is going to lose dismally. Most of the polls give single-digit numbers to the alliance, and while Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal might claim that the polls are wrong, the Badals seem to be paying for a massive double anti-incumbency.

Polls are, however, undecided between who will come to power. Will it be Captain Amarinder Singh, who is massively popular in his state, or Kejriwal’s AAP, which has eyed the state along with Goa to decide its political fate?  

Here are some things that could seal the deal for either Kejriwal’s AAP or Captain Amarinder Singh’s Congress.

1. Who gets the Badals’ anti-incumbency votes?

In the good ol’ days, when Punjab was a Congress vs SAD-BJP fight, the anti-incumbency votes would usually swing from one party to another.  But AAP’s presence has given pollsters sleepless nights. That an anti-incumbency vote was coming in the state was evident even in 2014,  senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley lost to Captain Amarinder Singh. In the Lok Sabha elections, AAP won four seats, the same number as SAD, while Congress won three and the BJP one. Throughout the campaign, media reports have stated that people have been extremely vocal about replacing SAD-BJP, who are seen as synonymous with the problems that haunt the state. Expect whoever gets the Badals’ votes to come to power.

2. How parties fare in the Malwa belt?

The cotton belt accounts for 69 of the 117 assembly sets and with a turnout of 75-85%, the region will elect the party that comes to power. The Malwa region consists of Muktsar, Ferozepur, Faridkot, Moga, Ludhiana, Bathinda, Mansa, Sangur, Patiala, Anandpur Sahib and Fatehgarh Sahib. The region is suffering on various socio-economic parameters and issues like  farmer suicides, pensions, jobs and a breakdown of law and order have dominated headlines. 

The region was considered a traditional SAD stronghold but things turned bad in 2007 when they won just 19 seats. They might have done better in 2012 with Dalit votes, but this time Captain Amarinder has focussed on the region and the Congress manifesto promises jobs, homes, plots, monthly pensions, crop compensation and health insurance for farmers. On the other hand, experts believe that AAP will do well here, with Bhagwant Mann enjoying a huge fan following. Who fares better in this region could decide the fate of the elections.

3. Has Bhagwant Mann pulled it home for AAP?

For many readers, AAP MP Bhagwant Mann might come across as a joker, but the vitriol he attracts from rivals show that he is a man who cannot be ignored. The man, who was suspended from Lok Sabha for live-streaming the route to Parliament, could very well become the next CM of Punjab. 

Known for his jokes, poems and satire, he is a larger-than-life politician who has a serious following in Punjab. There have been constant accusations that he is an alcoholic, making it ironic that he’s the face of a party that promises to make the state addiction-free. However, Mann has put his money where his mouth is by contesting against Sukhbir Singh Badal in Jalalabad, similar to Kejriwal’s move to contest against PM Modi in Varanasi. 

Unlike PM Modi in 2014, the Badals are facing a massive incumbency, AAP’s rock star candidate could very well beat Sukhbir Singh Badal and remain a massive player in Punjab politics for years to come.

4. Has Captain’s magic worked for Congress?

As early as November 2015, when Amarinder and Partap Singh Bajwa were at loggerheads over the reign of the Congress party in the state, the former had vehemently stated, “If the Congress does not need me, I am not going to sit back and allow the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to capture Punjab. I am going to fight them tooth and nail, because the AAP is not working in the interest of the common man as it claims to be doing.”

Amarinder’s threat seems to have worked and he was made Congress’ Punjab state convener and the CM face, with the Gandhis probably realising that the Captain represents one of Congress’ most realistic chances of coming back to power in a state.

The Captain has exuded confidence claiming that the people of Punjab will vote for stability instead of ‘communal and radical’ politics. He has claimed that the Badals ripped apart the state’s "social, religious and economic fabric", while Kejriwal’s AAP’s "hype has faded". He has pitted himself against CM Parkash Singh Badal in the latter’s stronghold of Lambi and claimed there will be a "wave for Congress" even in the Malwa region.

6. The Sidhu trump card

After quitting BJP, Sidhu flirted with Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party for a long time before deciding to join the Congress. While, across India, the former cricketer might be known for laughing at unfunny jokes on reality TV shows, in Punjab he is a force to reckon with and has electrified the Congress campaign with his witty one-liners and speeches. He is hailed as the deputy CM of the state wherever he goes and has been attacking the Badals and Kejriwal, and more at the latter because the SAD-BJP combine is facing a rout.

He has become the face of the campaign in the Majha region and is tasked with bringing home 25-30 seats. He has promised to offer "solutions" and not "cry like Kejriwal". Sidhu’s entry might just help edge the battle for Congress.

7.  Will PM Modi's appeal make a dent? 

Despite the prospect of a rout for the SAD-BJP alliance in Punjab, the PM has stuck out his neck and urged voters to back the alliance. He had focussed on OROP, surgical strikes and hoped the people of the state would prove the pollsters wrong.

Given the large number of soldiers in the state, his speeches focussed on the surgical strikes and the successful implementation of OROP, even though many leaders of the movement backed Congress. He attacked Congress’ central leadership claiming that it was a "sinking boat" and on its "last breath".

Whether the PM’s appeal works is anybody’s guess, but it looks unlikely to change voter opinion in a state where people are fed up with the Badals.

As things stand, it's a toss-up between Congress and AAP, and on March 11, we will know who's coming to power in this border state.