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North-East to get drier in future, study reveals

The research paper was authored by AP Dimri, Professor, School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), and Anubhav Choudhary, a doctoral student in the same department.

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The eastern Himalayan region, source of water for rivers in the northeast, is likely to see a decreased monsoon rainfall over the rest of this century, while the trend is going to be opposite across the western Himalayas, a new climate research study published in Springer journal has revealed. The study has predicted the trend for the period up to 2099.

The research used 10 global climate models, sourced from five international climate research institutes, to project rainfall across the Himalayan region. Researchers used a combination of regional climate model and global climate model experiments, which allowed for a sharper resolution and reduced uncertainties. The stretch from Afghanistan in the west to parts of South China in the east was chosen for the research.

Rainfall in the Himalayan region between 1970 and 2005 was used as the present-day monsoon dataset, while carbon emissions and varying elevations across the mountain range were among the many factors taken into account. The project made predictions for near-future (2020-2049) and far-future (2070-2099) time slices.

The research paper was authored by AP Dimri, Professor, School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), and Anubhav Choudhary, a doctoral student in the same department.

The study revealed that as we progress toward the far-future, rainfall in the northeast region or eastern Himalayas is likely to decrease. "There is, in general, a projection of wetter/drier future conditions for western/eastern Himalayan region, with an intensification in both signs in far-future, when compared to the near-future," the research paper stated.

The seven northeastern states of the country receive rainfall largely from the southwest monsoon, which also feeds the region's several rivers, including Brahmaputra. The western Himalayas receive rainfall from the southwest monsoon as well as the Western Disturbance. Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand — situated close to the western Himalayan range — are vulnerable to rain-triggered landslides and calamities. And this study throws more light on the potential threat to residents in these hill-states.

"There is a need to do more research on the Himalayan region as it plays an extremely important role in feeding the country's major rivers and because it is so vulnerable to climate change," Prof Dimri said.

Climate change

The research says the trend is going to be opposite across western Himalayas
It uses 10 global climate models, sourced from five international institutes, to  project the rainfall

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