Indian agencies fear Daesh as it has threatened using its units in Bangladesh to target New Delhi.
The deadly terror attack in Dhaka has left Indian security agencies wondering if their lurking fears of IS getting a foothold on the Indian subcontinent was coming true or was it a one-off attack by ISI-supported Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) or Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B).
Indian agencies have been wary of the IS trying to widen its focus by including the untapped Indian subcontinent for some time.
"Nothing could be said now as investigations are still on. Bangladeshi officials themselves are not clear. It could be both – an effort to resurrect their movement by JMB or HuJI cadres, who are being hounded out by Bangladesh, or by the IS," said a senior intelligence officer.
If it's the IS, there are three scenarios. "It could be IS sympathisers or IS terrorists who became terrorists through self-indoctrination or by real IS recruits who took training in Iraq and Syria. The third can be potentially very dangerous," he said.
It is because the IS has given threats to this effect in several of its articles in Dabiq (its online magazine) and through social media sites during the past couple of years. IS has often declared that it has covert units in Bangladesh and they be will be used to target neighbouring countries like India.
Early this year, the so-called Amir of the IS in Bangladesh, Shaykh Abu Ibrahim al-Hanif, in an interview in Dabiq, had declared that they would launch 'guerrilla attacks' in India by roping in local Mujahideens from Bangladesh and Pakistan.
"The terror attack at Holey Artisan Bakery in Dhaka indicates that the IS threat may not just be propaganda. The steadily increasing IS sympathisers and recruit base in India are worrying factors that warrant serious countermeasures. It may require efforts by all countries in the Indian subcontinent as the IS is trying to internationalise itself with the help of home-grown militants," said a senior security official.
But independent counterterrorism expert Ajai Sahni suspects that bringing the IS into the picture may not be the correct hypothesis and this kind of fear psychosis should not be promoted.
"Al Qaeda has been harping to launch attacks on India since 2009, but have we found a single incident or cell? Similarly, there is no evidence of IS presence despite NIA declaring that it has arrested so many recruits. Have they been able to prove one serious charge or establish one authentic trail of evidence? I would advise them not to jump to conclusions but work silently and share results after scrutinising evidence," Sahni says.
Sahni argues that when India has been able to withstand the onslaught of organisations like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) despite the full support of the ISI, why are the agencies making IS a Frankenstein?
"IS is losing heavily in their territory. Do you think they can send cadres here? I am not ruling out attacks by self-indoctrinated youth but don't make IS so big. IM is trying to piggyback IS to make it relevant and attract cadres and we are falling in that trap. Tackle Pakistan first," adds Sahni.
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