PM Modi's speech defending demonetization in Lok Sabha suggests BJP is worried about its political fallout

PM Narendra Modi in his long-winded nearly 90-minute speech in the Parliament on Tuesday touched upon several issues raised by the Opposition parties in the last few days. Modi  is always in his oratorial best, when he is on the frontfoot, attacking the Opposition with witty one-liners and sharp punchlines interspersed with data. Today as well, Modi responded to Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge's allegations with his trademark humour. PM also highlighted how several schemes started by the government were languishing during the UPA era and gained pace post 2014.

He hit out at allegations of the RSS not contributing to India's independence, by reminding Congress of their sketchy history of not giving due to freedom fighters not aligned to their ideology. But for many, Modi's speech on Tuesday was supposed to be a highlight, as it was the first time the PM was speaking on the floor of the house regarding demonetization.

The PM boldly defended the demonetization move, and explained the rationale of its timing with a slightly misguided analogy comparing it to surgery. But PM Modi's speech in its entirety didn't exude the confidence he has shown in the past. Trying to take a high moral ground about the decision to scrap high-value notes, Modi said the step is for the betterment of the country, and shouldn't be seen as a political exercise. He even took a jibe at Congress, saying that they would have implemented demonetization, if it had suited them politically. Modi recalled that former PM Indira Gandhi too had mulled taking a similar radical step, but backed down following chances of an electoral backlash. 

PTI quoted PM Modi as saying, "Some people have said why was this (demonetization) decision taken when the economy was doing well...It was the best time for demonetization as the economy was strong. Had the economy been weak, then we could not have done it successfully. Before subjecting a patient to surgery, a doctor checks all the parameters of the patient and only when those parameters are fine, is the operation done," he said. He also stressed that the decision was taken after deep introspection and not as a whim, which many opposition leaders have accused him of. In the Rajya Sabha, Arun Jaitley said that from February last year, RBI officials were in the loop about such a possibility. 

Modi also listed out reforms such as setting up of a black money SIT, tax avoidance deals with countries like Mauritius, tightening of laws on benami transactions, the real estate bill to curb proliferation of black money in the economy etc. Acknowledging the initial hardship to the people, he said this eased off after some days. He said that the frequent rule changes were meant to be for the benefit of commoners. Modi in his usual combative mode asked why the Congress never notified the Benami Act even though it was passed way back in 1988. He also questioned why Rajiv Gandhi didn't undertake any radical reforms despite having a greater mandate than Nehru. 

Modi continued his aggressive demeanour, but reading between the lines, it is easy to see that the PM is laying the ground for possible electoral setbacks in the upcoming elections. Hence, the entire segment of the speech covering demonetization was laced with grandiose overtones regarding nation-building and how the BJP hasn't done this for electoral goals. Essentially, PM Modi wanted to make the point that demonetization is not an electoral topic and that the longterm goals from it would far outweigh the teething problems during initial periods. However, Union Minister Venkaiah Naidu had recently said that demonetization is likely to help BJP sweep the Assembly polls. Other prominent BJP leaders have also repeatedly said that the public have endorsed the radical step whole-heartedly. 

But now, with reports of the SAD-BJP being in the backfoot in Punjab, the possibility of a hung assembly in Goa and the SP-Congress alliance giving BJP a Bihar-esque fright in Uttar  Pradesh, it is only natural that the saffron party is changing its narrative. Make no mistake, that a dominant BJP performance will be hailed as a thumbs up for demonetization. But in case the party fails to live up to its high standard, the PM has effectively set the ball rolling for a counter narrative. By pointing out that even Indira Gandhi couldn't muster the courage to implement demonetization, PM Modi is trying to put himself on a higher pedestal in front of the voters. Whether people will understand the appeal of statesman Modi and be considerate to BJP will be known in the future. But expect more and more BJP leaders to parrot the line of demonetization being for the greater good of the country in the coming days. It works perfectly as a face-saver and also to mount the campaign for 2019.