Holi Modi! BJP's massive win in UP has upended Indian politics

The Modi Magic is alive and kicking. If there was any doubt after the Delhi and Bihar elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid them to rest with brutal finality, raking in an unprecedented 325 seats for the BJP and smaller alliances, in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state that typically holds the key to power at the centre.

What’s more, the win also paves the way for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to swing Rajya Sabha numbers in its favour, where it has seen key reforms legislation such as the Land Acquisition Bill stymied by the Congress-led Opposition. It also indicates that the BJP can hope for a strong showing in the 2019 general elections; indeed, the UP elections were widely seen as a referendum on the party’s prospects for the national elections, and a loss here would have severely impacted, not just perception, but also the party’s strategy for 2019. It would also have taken much of the sheen off Prime Minister Modi, who had just come off a string of electoral wins in civic polls – a good barometer of political winds in a number of states.

But with the win in UP, and despite reverses in Punjab and Goa, Modi has proven that he remains the most formidable assessor of political mood in the country. Indeed, Modi had gone all in the Uttar Pradesh campaign, holding 27 rallies across the breadth of the state and capping with a three-day extravaganza of roadshows in his Parliamentary constituency of Varanasi. His gamble has now paid off more handsomely than anyone could have expected. In the process, Modi has also ripped a big hole in the Opposition, proving that neither the combined might of the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, nor the so-called 'youth factor' of Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi was a match for his unparalleled campaigning skills and personal charisma.

Even Mayawati's BSP performed far worse than predicted, which led her to make startling claims of EVM tampering. She said: "Either the EVMs did not accept votes other than BJP, or the votes of other parties have gone to the BJP in the EVMs. Most votes in Muslim majority constituencies have gone to the BJP, makes it evident that voting machines were manipulated."

In terms of the political economy, the UP win is a clear indicator that the November 2016 demonetization of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes barely made a dent in the minds of voters. Despite 'experts' who had predicted that the privations inflicted upon lower income groups by the currency ban would ring the death knell of the BJP,  there seems to have been little or no effect on voting habits. "Demonetization was also one of the major reasons for BJP getting votes because people supported the move. We will continue to win with our (sic) strategy,” said Union Minister Prakash Javadekar. In fact, the Indian voter’s old habit of throwing out incumbents seems to have left a firm stamp on the firmament with this round of state elections. 

In Punjab, where the BJP-Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) combine was unceremoniously booted out,  charges of corruption and an inability to check the drug menace did the ruling government in. Indeed, the Badal family itself was largely suspected of being hand-in-glove with drug cartels in the state. Similarly, in Goa, the BJP ran into heavy weather over corruption issues, with even Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar losing his seat.

In Uttarakhand, it was the Congress’ turn to bite the dust, again over widespread allegations of nepotism and corruption. The recent shenanigans in the state, where the courts had to intervene to re-instate Harish Rawat’s government after what was seen as an engineered dismissal, doesn’t seem to have swayed the voters’ minds. 

Manipur, where the Congress has had an easy run, the BJP surprised election observers with a remarkable showing, even if it did not get enough numbers to form the next government. Nonetheless, what it proved was that there is a saffron storm coming to the North East, and the Congress, and the Left parties, can only ignore it at their own peril. 

As BJP spokesperson Nalin Kohli said: “In Manipur BJP had no presence. From no presence to some presence and to even having a chance of forming a government is historic.” The larger questions that must be answered now, though, is: What next for the Congress? And perhaps more critically, what should Rahul Gandhi do next? Despite the Congress spokespersons pointing to the Punjab win as evidence of the Gandhi scion’s political smarts, it is clear that the win was more attributable to Captain Amarinder Singh’s reputation than Gandhi. Ironically, Capt. Singh was named the party’s chief ministerial candidate only after he practically threatened to walk out if  they didn't get the party's backing. 

The UP alliance, which was initially seen as a masterstroke by Rahul and Akhilesh, has proven to be a damp squib, as the Modi strategy has unravelled every possible combination of Yadav, Dalit, Muslims, OBCs, even upper castes.  Instead, with his focus on the poor, instead of just caste- and religion-based permutations, Modi may have irreparably re-established the Indira Gandhi school of politics.  

In such a situation, calls for Priyanka Gandhi – whose style of campaigning is often compared her grandmother -- to now enter active politics will only grow louder. At worst, this could be an early sign of the Congress party’s forfeiture of any position, real or imagined, as the pre-eminent pole of Indian politics. 

P.S. Perhaps this is the best way to address the Aam Aadmi Party, which went in all guns blazing in both Punjab and Goa, and where it was expected to put up formidable challenges to both the BJP and the Congress. While it failed to open its innings in Goa, its showing in Punjab of 20 seats so far is less than the sweep they had been expecting, and not quite enough to make for a formidable Opposition. AAP's opponents have often accused it of being a party built on media hype and it did little to dispel those notions.