Electric cars may take over Indian roads by 2020

Even as Indians take to the road like never before, consumers could well be buying their last petrol or diesel car, according to a US-based expert. Using the country's quick adaptation of smartphones as a model, Tony Seba, lecturer of Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford University, says electric vehicles could bring about a similar massive transportation disruption in India as early as 2020.

What's more, he predicts that internal combustion vehicles which run on petrol and diesel could be wiped out globally in as little as 8-10 years. Seba's warning comes as passenger vehicles in India in financial year 2016-17 grew at 9.24 per cent, the fastest rate of growth in six years, largely on the backs of utility vehicles, most of which run on diesel, which is much cheaper than petrol.

"Remember at the time of Smartphones India was the country which was the quickest to adopt the smartphone culture. In India the transport disruption can happen sooner," Seba told WION in an exclusive interview.

The benefits, he points out, will be enormous, both in terms of financial savings as well as air pollution levels.

Seba estimates India stands to save as much as 6000 dollars a year per family as transportation cost will be 10 times cheaper with electric vehicles. As a nation, too, India, which imports about 80 per cent of its crude requirements, will stand to save on its import bill.

As for pollution, electric vehicles emit about 95 per cent less pollutants compared to cars that run on fossil fuels.

"I was in Mumbai and Delhi a couple of months back and the pollution there is insane, especially in Delhi," Seba said. "(With electric vehicles) The emissions will come down and health wise, it will be very important."

He also foresees a situation where more people will rely on cab aggregators like Ola and Uber instead of owing and driving a car.

"In totality an owner on average uses four per cent of his car, Ola and Uber use 40 per cent. Hence, instead of parking, the latter will be moving around. This means if they are EVs (Electric Vehicles), there will be 70 per cent fewer cars," Seba said.

The logic, he says, is simple. "When we use electric vehicles, the cost per km goes down 10 times as compared to combustion vehicles. Every time there is a difference of 10 times in prices, disruption happens and for the vehicle sector it will take 10 years for disruption to happen," he points out.

Besides, electric vehicles have a working life that is three times that of a petrol or diesel car. They also have only 20 moving parts, compared to 100 for regular cars.

"Only EVs will survive," he said. "Even if the petrol and diesel vehicles try they will not." In fact, he goes so far as to say that by 2020-2021, no new combustible vehicles will be sold. With fewer individuals owning or buying cars, the resale value of cars will also go down resulting in less purchase of such cars.

Oil prices, too, will play a part. Globally, he predicts, oil will hit peak demand by 2020 at 100 million barrels a day and by 2030, it will dip to 70 million barrel per day. Consequently, prices will crash by $20-25 a barrel and result in oversupply of 2 million barrels per day.