DNA Edit: Dravidian parties are at the crossroads

Tamil Nadu has been thrown into uncertainty, just months after Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa bucked anti-incumbency.

This was a feat last achieved by her mentor MG Ramachandran in the 1980s, in a famous victory over arch-rival M Karunanidhi in the assembly elections this year. The DMK had attempted to turn Jayalalithaa’s medical condition into a campaign issue but her sporadic presence at AIADMK rallies quashed any rumours.

Since September 22, when she was admitted to Apollo Hospital in Chennai with “fever and dehydration,” the disarray in the party and government has become palpable. The AIADMK’s discomfiture isn’t surprising — she did not create a second rung of leadership to ensure a smooth generational transition. Karunanidhi, also in the hospital with a life-threatening situation, has however fared marginally better.

While Jayalalithaa centralised all authority in the AIADMK within herself, Karunanidhi depended on his large family to run the DMK and share the spoils of power.

This bred allegations of nepotism and has significantly corroded the DMK’s popular appeal. The 2G spectrum scam, which wrecked the second UPA government, had its roots in the power tussle within the DMK First Family. Nevertheless, MK Stalin did manage to come out of his father’s larger than life persona in the 2016 polls.

He underwent an aam aadmi image makeover and crafted the Namukku Naame (We for ourselves) campaign, to appeal to Tamil pride and the dignity of labour, to counter the freebies that Jayalalithaa was offering to the electorate.

The DMK may not have met the halfway mark in 2016, but Stalin’s performance brings hope. In contrast, AIADMK does not have a succession plan though O Panneerselvam, who has twice stood in as CM when Jayalalithaa was convicted by courts, and Sasikala Natarajan, her personal aide, are viewed as top contenders. But neither can match Jaya’s grassroots appeal, crucial for ensuring that the AIADMK does not disintegrate post-Jaya.

The Congress and BJP will sense a political opening if the two Dravidian parties cannot fill the vacuum left by their undisputed leaders.

But caste conflicts between the intermediate castes and Dalits, have worsened recently. The Dravidian parties, built on social justice politics, have failed to heal this divide.

But the personality cult that dominates Tamil politics leaves a more pressing question unanswered: can the AIADMK throw up another figure to rival or match MGR and Jayalalithaa?