Why ULFA (I) leader Paresh Baruah is an important player in Assam’s political situation

For the inhabitants of Chokoli Bhoria, a village tucked away deep amidst the Kharjan tea estate under Chabua police station in upper Assam’s Dibrugarh district, this Magh Bihu (a post-harvest festival in the state) was a special one. United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) general secretary Anup Chetia, who was born and brought up at this village, visited his ancestral home during the Bihu after being released on bail from the Guwahati Central Jail. Chetia, who served prison terms for more than 18 years in a Dhaka jail, was handed over to India by Bangladesh in November last. 

But amidst this joy and hope, another son of Chokoli Bhoria, Paresh Baruah, elusive ‘commander in chief’ of the militant group ULFA (Independent), is yet to follow the footsteps of his cousin brother Anup Chetia (Golap Baruah is his real name) and surrender himself to give the much needed thrust to the ongoing peace process between the ULFA doves and the central government. The Bihu celebrations for the Chokoli Bhoria inhabitants will be grand and historic if Baruah returns home and joins his neighbours and old friends after a very long hiatus. 

Though Baruah and Chetia (both were born in 1957) grew up and played soccer together at the village, Baruah is much more determined in his mission than Chetia who spent most of his life in prison. Now, for Chetia, whose life is at a crossroads, there are no other options but to join his former colleagues Arabinda Rajkhowa, Raju Baruah and others who are involved in the peace process with the government. But Baruah, who is down but not out, is a complex puzzle in the peace process yet to be solved by the government. 

There is no denying the fact that Anup Chetia’s presence will help the government carry forward the peace process in a new way as Chetia is undoubtedly the most committed and important ULFA man after Baruah but the absence of the latter and his hawkish stand on Assam’s ‘sovereignty’ will make the peace process actually incomplete. The state will not be able to enjoy permanent peace until and unless Baruah decides to join the peace bandwagon. There is also a possibility that Baruah may not be interested in keeping himself satisfied with the NSCN (I-M) type solution to his demand, which New Delhi may be mulling to provide. Unlike his former colleagues Rajkhowa and Chetia, Baruah is still pursuing his dream of ‘sovereign’ Assam and leading the ULFA (I) from an undisclosed location in Myanmar. 

However, it’s a positive sign that Baruah has expressed his interest in joining the peace process, following the handing over of Chetia to the Indian government by Bangladesh. 

But the most important questions are: Will Baruah come out of the jungle and join his fellow friends sooner or later for finding a permanent solution to the ULFA-government imbroglio? How long will he be able to sustain his armed rebellion against New Delhi sans the constant support of other anti-India forces on foreign soil? How long will Baruah be able to garner support of his followers without any tangible results of the movement? 

The answers to these questions could be many. But the government has adopted a “wait and watch” policy in case of Baruah, and it thinks “that’s the way the cookie crumbles”. 

According to well known Swedish journalist, author and a key insurgency-watcher Bertil Lintner (who was interviewed by this writer), the person to watch now is Paresh Baruah as he is not going to give up and he is the brains behind the newly formed Western Southeast Asia Liberation Front (WSALF). The main issue concerning North-East’s insurgency scene will be the ULFA (I) led by Baruah and his allies, who are based in Myanmar, beyond the reach of the Indian Army, opines Lintner.

Despite Baruah’s willingness to join peace talks, the entire process will not be a cakewalk either for the Indian government or for Baruah. It will be very difficult for Baruah to become a State politician, or even to enter into serious discussions with New Delhi — unlike Rajkhowa and the others who have much less to hide. Baruah has always had very close ties with Bangladeshi intelligence agency, Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), the Pakistani spy agency Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Chinese intelligence, and it is a matter of doubt whether those entities would allow him to come overground. Baruah knows too many secrets. He would have to look over his shoulder — for the Pakistanis and the Chinese — if he decides to join the talks. He is cornered and he knows it, and that makes him potentially dangerous as well. Arabinda Rajkhowa is much less dogmatic than Baruah and more interested in Assamese culture and history than in carrying out violent operations.

There are also several unconfirmed reports of links between the Paresh Baruah-led faction and the United Wa State Army (UWSA) which has had a ceasefire agreement with the Myanmar government since 1989. Intelligence reports suggest that militant groups from India’s North-East buy arms from the Ting Ying’s group which had been part of the Communist Party of Burma until it was recognised as a local militia force by the Myanmarese government. 

Though over the last few years Assam hasn’t witnessed any major subversive activities by the ULFA (I), intelligence agencies in the state is considering it as “the lull before the storm”. 

The ULFA (I), in the past, carried out series of attacks on the Hindi-speaking people in the Brahmaputra Valley. Those attacks were carried out by the outfit to make its presence felt and warn New Delhi of not taking it for granted. And nobody can say for sure that similar attacks would not take place in future as well. Baruah will strike if his demand is not taken seriously by the government or being a mastermind, he may play his sovereignty card well to put more pressure on the government and extract something which may surprise all. 

The insurgency problem in the North-East, most of which was born out of ethnic complexities and perennial neglect, is not going to disappear even if the militants are neutralised.  Many of the problems are deep-rooted, genuine and still festering. Many people in the region feel neglected and marginalised. Development has to reach those areas and their ethnic identities have to be respected. Frankly speaking, many people in the North-East feel they are not Indians and Baruah shares this sense of alienation.

The present Narendra Modi-led central government has shown keen interest in solving the insurgency problem in the region but it has so far failed to convince Baruah to join the peace process, and it’s really a worrying sign.

The author is a veteran journalist in Assam