Nepal elections: Hope for stability, peace and development

The Left alliance of KP Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’-led Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) is all set to form the government in the 275-seat parliament and in six states, following the first parliamentary and provincial elections held under the 2015 Constitution in two phases during November-December. According to the latest report of the Nepal Election Commission, while the Left alliance has won 116 out of the 165 directly elected seats in parliament, the Nepali Congress has won only 21 seats. The Federal socialist party of Nepal and Rashtriya Janata party have bagged three seats each so far.

Since 110 seats in the parliament are to be elected through the proportional representation system, the Nepali Congress Party has some chance to improve its number in the parliament. 

While it is true that the formation of an alliance between the CPN-UML and the CPN-MC had increased the prospect of the “Prachanda”-Oli Left alliance winning a comfortable majority in view of their combined political strength, it is also true that this alliance carried out a magnificent election campaign focused on the development of Nepal. In turn, Prachanda and Oli succeeded in capturing the imagination of the people of Nepal with its promises. The failure of the Nepali Congress to project its strong leadership with an effective election manifesto and other factors played a vital role in the party’s loss in the elections. Moreover, the outcome of the elections reflects the prevailing belief among the Nepalese that the only the Left alliance can end the nearly 30-year period of political instability in the country by laying the foundation for a new strong, stable and developed Nepal.

In this context, it is appropriate to recall that ever since Nepal adopted a multi-party system in 1990, not a single government could complete the full term of five years. This acute political instability and a decade-long Maoist insurgency almost halted economic development in the country. Even the 2006 comprehensive peace agreement was signed between the Government of Nepal and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) and the first Constituent Assembly of 2008 failed to end the political turmoil, with Nepal having witnessed 10 prime ministers in the last nine years. The earthquake in April 2015 and the protest by the Madhesi people in the south of the country against the new constitution adopted by the Constituent Assembly (CA)-II in September 2015, further obstructed the way for the democratic process to take concrete shape. But, before it could have been too late, the Oli government amended the Constitution in January 2016, providing greater representation in government bodies on the basis of the proportional inclusion of the Madhesis. Though all the demands of the Madhesis with regard to the New Constitution have not been addressed, they, like the people of other parts of Nepal, also believe that it is only through their effective political participation that a new Nepal accommodating the interests of all sections can be built.

While international media was closely observing the parliamentary and provincial elections in Nepal, India, which enjoys historical and cultural ties with this Himalayan state, had its own reasons to see that the roots of democratic institutions are strengthened in the country. One reason was the fact that since India shares an open border with Nepal, instability of any sort has a direct bearing on India’s security. New Delhi, therefore, hopes to see that these elections ensure political stability and promotion of democratic forces in Nepal. India also wants to see that the new government of Nepal takes steps to protect the interests of the people in the Madhesi region, who have close cultural and family ties with the people of Bihar and UP.

India is concerned about China’s increasing presence in Nepal. In fact, Beijing’s role was crucial in bringing Prachanda and Oli together. This became further evident from the Left alliance’s anti-India stand during the election campaign. In an oblique reference to the 1950 treaty of peace and friendship between Nepal and India, Prachanda and Oli said that the ‘unequal treaties’ would be abrogated, if the Left alliance came to power. Oli also announced that the Left coalition government would revive Budhi Gandaki Hydro Project with China, which was cancelled by the current government. In the past also Oli had expressed his anger at the presence of Indian media, following the April 2015 earthquake. Subsequently, in September 2015, Nepal accused India of supporting the Madhesis protesting against the new Constitution. In March 2016, Oli secured major projects under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. It is, therefore, another reason, according to some experts, that India wanted the current Nepali Congress and other like-minded parties to come to power after the elections.

Now, with the emergence of a new political scenario in Nepal, it will be interesting to see how and to what extent the Left alliance is able to serve the interests of the people of Nepal and also what policy it adopts towards centuries old Nepal-India ties.

The author is research fellow at Chennai Centre for China Studies