It’s high time the IMD becomes answerable to farmers

Anger is simmering among the farming community of the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions of Maharashtra. And, its ire is directed towards the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the government agency responsible for weather forecasting. A group of farmers from Beed district have filed a police complaint against the department alleging it had forecasted normal rainfall this year, but several parts of Maharashtra have received less rainfall.

As of August 5, sixteen districts of Maharashtra have seen deficient rainfall. Marathwada subdivision and Vidarbha subdivision have minus 26 per cent and minus 25 per cent rainfall departure, respectively. Worse, erratic rains and prolonged dry spells have affected the short-term kharif crop, which are expected to have a reduced yield due to water stress. A timely advisory from the IMD could have averted the present crisis.

This year, pre-monsoon commenced in Marathwada and Vidarbha on May 29. In the early part of June, these regions received very heavy rainfall and farmers went in for an early sowing of kharif crops. However, these rains were not the real monsoon, and the IMD failed to issue a suitable advisory telling farmers not to go in for sowing till the arrival of the southwest monsoon. Predictably, by June 16, the rains in Marathwada almost stopped and farmers panicked.

The southwest monsoon finally arrived around June 23, but failed to bring good rains in these regions. By the end of June, reports of failure of kharif sowing started to pour in. Sowing failure not only means loss of seeds to the farmers, but also huge sums of money lost on chemicals, fertilisers and labour.

Both Marathwada and Vidarbha faced a dry spell of over three weeks for which the IMD failed to issue a timely advisory. For instance, till June 20, the Latur district Agro Advisory Bulletin advised “sowing of rainfed Bt cotton” and sowing of black gram and green gram. It was only on June 30 that the advisory recommended spraying potassium nitrate on crops to deal with water stress. On July 9, the state chief minister advised farmers to postpone sowing till July 20, but there was already a gap of 12-14 days in rainfall.

Because of a prolonged dry spell, short-term kharif crops like moong, udid and soybean are facing water stress, which means their vegetative growth is stunted and they will go into early flowering that will reduce crop yield. The influence of monsoon low pressure brought some rains to Marathwada and Vidarbha in mid-July, but there is already another pause in the monsoon rains expected to last till at least August 15. According to Akshay Deoras, a private weather forecaster, more districts of Marathwada and Vidarbha are expected to get into the deficient rainfall category in the next two weeks. Officials in the agriculture department in Latur are warning of more than 50 per cent average yield reduction in kharif crops in the district. The situation will be no different in other districts of Marathwada and Vidarbha.  

An accurate forecast of the southwest monsoon and timely weather alerts are crucial for farmers of the two districts where irrigation facilities are minimal. As per a 2013 report of the state’s Planning Department, water availability per hectare of culturable command area in Marathwada, Vidarbha and the rest of Maharashtra is 1,383 cum, 3,627 cum and 9,173 cum, respectively.

Farmers are facing the brunt of erratic weather. In March this year, parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha received very heavy rainfall and hailstorms, which destroyed standing rabi crop over an 80,000 hectare area. No hailstorm alert came from the IMD, which conceded having no system for hailstorm warning. Interestingly, a recent country-wide analysis of hailstorms by the IMD’s Pune office has shown Maharashtra to be most prone to hailstorms. Since 2013-14, hailstorms have destroyed crops over a 2.3 million hectare area in Maharashtra.

Farmers in Marathwada and Vidarbha are already on tenterhooks due to the changing climate, increasing freak weather events and recurring droughts. Inaccurate forecasts and lack of timely warning by the IMD is only going to make matters worse.

Nidhi Jamwal is an independent journalist based in Mumbai