Does Mumbai’s second airport fulfill its needs?

Mumbai’s second commercial airport is finally going ahead. Far from marking the end of the city’s problems, it heralds the start of numerous new ones. Panvel is about the worst possible site for an airport. There are onerous engineering and ecological problems it faces. When was it that India had last diverted the course of a river over a 6.5km length? With the Karnala Bird Sanctuary just 9.5 km away, bird ingestion in the engines during aircraft take-offs and landings will pose serious safety hazards. Much land has still to be acquired, including land on which the first runway and terminal building will come up. At Tokyo’s Narita airport, some farmers had refused to vacate a small plot of land when the airport was under construction. That airport had to operate for years with a single runway.

Some ecological clearances are still to be obtained – without which work cannot begin. Not surprisingly, far fewer airport developers have shown interest in the Panvel airport than in the puny airport for Mopa, Goa. The new airport’s project cost of Rs 16,000 crore and its time-scale – start of services by December 2019 - are absurd. There are bound to be enormous cost and time over-runs. The airport will cost much more, and take at least six to seven years to complete. Amazingly, the 22-km-long Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link to connect the city to the airport by road is to cost Rs 17,500 crore – costlier than the airport it will serve. There will also be a Metro link for transit passengers between the old and new airports ( Rs 12,000 crore) and a CST-Panvel high-speed rail link (Rs 15,000 crore). The three links will together cost Rs 44,500 crore excluding any cost overruns – almost three times the projected cost of the airport. In the first of the four phases, the airport will have an annual capacity of just 10 million passengers. That means it will be saturated the day it opens for service. With the present airport’s capacity of 40 million, total capacity will be 50 million. However, Mumbai airport is projected to handle a total of 64 million passengers by 2020 – 24 million more than the available 40 million capacity. The Panvel airport will not even be ready by then. Traffic will be even higher by the time it is operational.

Worse still, the Panvel airport will have an ultimate capacity of only 60 million passengers. Every major airport in the region has a capacity of 100 million or more. Delhi airport will handle about 130 million passengers annually by 2030 - with capacity to spare. Mumbai’s traffic projections show 119 million passengers in 2031-32. However, the total capacity for the two airports will be only 100 million. That means the Panvel airport will reach ultimate capacity just about a decade after the start of operations. By that time, no large vacant plot of land may be available for a third airport. The land available at Nevali will have been diverted to other uses. The only alternative will be to set it up on land reclaimed from the sea – a horrendously expensive proposition.

Mumbai’s position as India’s financial and commercial capital depends on global connectivity. Today, about 40 per cent of India’s exports pass through it’s airport and seaport. It has the head offices of major Indian as well as multinational corporations.  Despite that, Mumbai is served by just 45 international airlines – compared to 110 for Singapore and 140 for Dubai. That puny Panvel airport will not improve the situation much. This will hit Mumbai as well as India very hard. Mumbai had the chance of a lifetime to set up a large new airport and finally enter the big league. We threw it away. Understandably, Mumbai is way down the list of global financial centres – around 76th. Singapore, which has played its cards brilliantly, is fourth – behind New York, London and Hong Kong. They have much to teach us. Mumbai and India will bitterly regret the choice of the Panvel site for Mumbai’s second airport.

The author is a civil aviation industry analyst.