People have hardly voted for a newly mushroomed party, even when it was led by a stalwart like Bhailalbhai Patel (Swatantra Party), or Chimanbhai Patel's first KLP or Janata Party
Election Commission data for Assembly elections from 1962 to 2012 shows an interesting trend — an average minimum of 33 per cent of the electorate pooled anti-establishment votes in Gujarat.
People have hardly voted for a newly mushroomed party, even when it was led by a stalwart like Bhailalbhai Patel (Swatantra Party), or Chimanbhai Patel's first KLP or Janata Party. The latest of attempt in 2012, Gujarat Parivartan Party led by former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel, fetched just 3.63 per cent votes. Only when there has been a major swing or an anti establishment wave, is when the third front has come to power — once in 1975 and the second time in 1990.
What this data indicates is that any attempt to split anti-incumbency votes has not succeeded in the state. In 1962, some 11 parties contested the polls, but majority of the electorate voted either for the Congress, Swatantra Party, Praja Socialist Party or BJP, but not for the Hindu Mahasabha, Communist Party of India, Nutan Mahgujarat Janata Parishad or any other. The trend has continued.
In 1975, 10 parties contested the polls, in 1990, there were some 25 parties in the fray, 26 in 1995, 20 parties in 2002, 34 parties in 2012. The people voted for Congress or the main opposition party, be it Swatantra Party, Indian National Congress (O) (NCO) or BJP. For example, Janata Dal led by Chimanbhai Patel in 1990 fetched 29.36 per cent votes and 70 seats, but fared poorly in 1998 and got just 2.63 per cent votes.
Now that the BJP is ruling the state, voters have rejected AIRJP, GPP and even NCP. The Congress, which had hit the bottom in 1990 with just 30.74 per cent votes, is slowly recovering. In 2012, it's electoral share has increased by 8.19 and it scored 38.93 per cent votes.
Rise & fall of third front
- Swantantra Party: After Gujarat was carved out of Bombay, the Indian National Congress’ main opponent was the Swantratra Party. It contested Assembly polls in 1962, 67 and 72. In 1967, it had fetched some 38.19 per cent votes (66 seats) and became the main opposition. Formed by C Rajagopalachari, the party, however, soon fell apart.
- The Role of Bhaikaka: The first Leader of Opposition (1962-68) was Bhailalbhai D Patel, fondly known as Bhaikaka. He advocated decentralisation of industries and development of agro-based industries, and rural development. The party, after losing footing, merged with Charan Singh ‘s Bharatiya Kranti Dal in 1974.
- Indian National Congress (Organisation) Formed in 1969, it was led by Kamraj and Morarji Desai at a national level. It contested the state assembly elections once in 1972 and fetched 23 per cent votes and 16 seats. Its MLA from Kalol in north Gujarat, Maneklal Gandhi, was elected as Leader of Opposition.
- First Coalition government: In 1975-1976 March, Gujarat had its first coalition government led by INCO MLA Babubhai J Patel. Originally from Congress, Patel had defected in 1969 with Kamraj and Morarji Desai. It was a coalition of INCO, Bharatiya Jansangh, BLD and SP. After President’s Rule for nine months, Janata Party came to power.
- Janata Dal and Chiman Patel: In 1990, Gujarat saw a non-Congress government for the third time, led by Chimanbhai Patel’s Janata Dal. An economist, Patel started his political career with the INC. After his demise in 1994, Janata Dal (Gujarat) merged with Congress.
- RJP & Shankersinh Vaghela: Sankersinh Vaghela came to limelight after his revolt in BJP and CM Keshubhai Patel. Though Patel was replaced, Vaghela floated All India Rashtriya Janata Party in 1996. His party merged with Congress in 2001. His candidates are contesting on All India Hindustani Congress symbol this elections.
Anti establishment votes from 1962 to 1990
year per cent
1962----33.52
1967----43.37
1972----34.56
1975----43.95
1980----36.95
1985----34.21
1990----56.05
1995----61.22
1998----47.44
Anti establishment votes from 2002 to 2012
year per cent
2002----39.45
2007----39.05
2012----43.51
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