Met predicts warm winter

This time, India is likely to experience a warm winter, the Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.

The maximum and minimum temperature between December and February would be warmer in all the meteorological sub-divisions, says IMD.

This, however, does not mean a complete absence of cold wave spells, during which ambient temperature drops at least by 5 degrees Celsius and stays at that level for a minimum of five days.

Below normal cold wave conditions are likely only over the core cold weather zone in 2016-17, says the forecast.

The zone includes parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana, and Met subdivisions of Marathwada, Vidarbha and Madhya Maharashtra.

“Earlier this year we came out with a temperature outlook for summer months. We are doing this for winter months now. We will update the forecast in five days and alert the people about any impending cold wave,” IMD Director General K J Ramesh told DH.

The season’s average maximum temperature in most sub-divisions in northwest and northeast are likely to be more than 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal.  Most of the subdivisions in Peninsular India are likely to be warmer by less than 0.5 degrees Celsius.

India experiences several adverse consequences of cold weather, including hundreds of deaths every year. On an average, about 780 deaths, particularly of homeless people, occur due to cold waves each year.

In addition, there are issues surrounding power generation and water supply. Deaths were reported in the north during the 2015-16 winter though the average seasonal mean temperatures was the highest since the winter of 1901.

Analysis of minimum temperature data in the last four decades suggests decreasing trends in the frequency and duration of cold waves in many parts. The annual mean land temperature averaged over the country during 2016 till October is almost 0.9 degrees Celsius above the 1961-1990 average. Due to this 2016 is likely to end up as one of the warmest years since 1901.

“One of the reasons behind the decreasing trend in cold waves is global warming. However, the ocean conditions over the equatorial Indian and Pacific oceans also contribute to the year-to-year variability of cold waves over the country,” said Ramesh.