Poor monsoon likely this year too

India stares at a poor south-west monsoon as the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the country could experience below normal or deficient monsoon this year too.

In its April forecast issued on Wednesday, the IMD said there is 35 per cent probability of below normal (90-96 per cent of average rainfall) and 33 per cent chance of deficient (less than 90 per cent) monsoon. The probability of having excess rainfall is negligible. India also experienced below normal monsoon in 2014.

“The Cabinet Secretariat and the Prime Minister’s Office have been informed about the forecast so that they can prepare for future possibilities,” Union Minister of Science and Technology Harsh Vardhan said.

The next forecast will be issued in June.For the country as a whole, India is projected to have 93 per cent of its average rainfall of 89 cm. This, as per the IMD classification, is below normal.

The forecast is based on a five-parameter model, used by the agency for April forecast. The model comes with an error margin of five per cent on either side. An experimental monsoon prediction model even suggests a further drop in the forecast to the level of 91 per cent.

“Below normal rainfall is expected in north-west and central India whereas better rainfall is likely in the north-east and peninsular region,” Shailesh Nayak, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, told Deccan Herald.

The most crucial factor behind the alarming forecast is El Nino – an unusual rise of sea surface temperature in the Pacific that plays havoc with the weather condition around the world.

“At present, weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the Pacific. They are expected to become strong by June and El Nino conditions are likely to persist during the south-west monsoon season,” said M Rajeevan, director of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune. Out of the last 14 El Nino years, eight led to deficient monsoon in India.
As much as 75 per cent of India’s total rainfall comes from the south-west monsoon between June and September.

The rain is crucial for summer crops as farmers in many states are dependent on the monsoon in the absence of a properly developed irrigation system.
DH News Service