With normal monsoon, Kharif sowing is better than last year

Private forecaster Skymet Weather has made an analysis of historical data to suggest that whenever monsoon rainfall is between 90% to 100% of the long term average rainfall in Gujarat, 61 percent districts of that state have more than 60 percent possibility of being in drought. Confused?

Well, the pattern of monsoon rainfall is such that it can perhaps throw up conclusions that can be confusing.

For instance, depending on where we look, the official data released by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) can tell you different trends about the current monsoon season. The data from 1 June to 11 July will tell you that the rain fall was almost normal at a country level, heavy and excess if you are talking about Jammu & Kashmir or Western Rajasthan, and highly deficient if the coverage area is Kerala, Karnataka, Western Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha or Jharkhand. Large parts of the country including Gujarat, the state which the private weather forecaster had predicted normal monsoon, have seen normal rain fall so far.

What does it mean?

Let's get back to Skymet and see what it had to say about Gujarat. While it had correctly predicted a normal rainfall in Gujarat in the initial days of monsoon, it says that the state may see deficient rains in the coming months - July, August and September and may have an adverse impact on rain fed areas. "Groundnut cultivation is done in 14.246 lakh hectares of land. It is also a water intensive crop. Again, dry weather in the July, August and September may have an adverse impact on the crop", Skymet notes.

In other words, the aggregate data does not capture pockets of distress caused by uneven intensity of rainfall across the country. Still, it gives a clue as to how Kharif sowing season has progressed so far.

Here is the official data:

Source: Ministry of Agriculture

As on July 7, the total sown area in the country stands at 404.27 lakh hectare as compared to 371.39 lakh hectare at this time last year. Rice has been sown in 79.81 lakh ha, pulses in 44.11 lakh ha, coarse cereals in 80.78 lakh ha, sugarcane in 47.93 lakh ha and cotton in 71.82 ha.