NSG entry: Why India hit the great wall of China

The Narendra Modi government has been castigated by the Opposition for the "hamhanded" way it handled India's high-decibel attempt to become a member of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Though India had the support of the majority of the 48 NSG members, it was China which single-handedly blocked a consensus and spoiled Delhi's chances of being admitted during the group's annual plenary meet in Seoul last week.

What is little-known though is that China, behind the scenes, had assured our government that it would not oppose India's membership if it did not come in the way of Pakistan's chance of being admitted as a member.

The latest issue of India Today carries the inside story of how China then reneged on its promise and blocked India's chances when it realised that a huge majority of the NSG members opposed Pakistan's application. Indian officials revealed that when foreign secretary S Jaishankar flew down for a secret meeting with top Chinese officials, he was told by them that, "We are prepared to look at accommodating India [at the NSG]. But it can't only be about India in the long run."

China's message was clear: Our support for your membership to the NSG is linked with you not coming in the way of Pakistan's entry. China's concern was that once India was in the NSG, it would block Pakistan's chances since all decisions have to be taken by consensus and even one dissenting member can block a resolution.

It was that secret assurance that made external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj state in her annual press conference in Delhi a day before the NSG met at Seoul that, "China is not blocking India's entry into the NSG. It is only talking about criteria and procedures. I am hopeful that we would be able to convince China to support our entry." She then went on to add that as far as the Pakistan application was concerned, "we will not oppose entry of any nation into NSG" and that "each country should be considered on the basis of their merit".

India had sent a clear signal to China that it would keep its word. However, during informal discussions at the NSG meet, China realised that there was stiff opposition to Pakistan's application. To thwart India's chances, China then changed its stand from "linkage to blockage", as an Indian official put it.

China first pursued procedural tactics and told the chair headed by South Korea, that India's application was not on the agenda and couldn't be discussed. India's supporters hit back by forcing the chair to agree to a discussion. India Today reveals how China then turned the tables on India by entering into a secret agreement with South Korea to make the discussions infructuous. South Korea needed China's backing for the NSG to come out with a strong statement against North Korea's nuclear shenanigans. As a quid pro quo, China persuaded South Korea into passing a killer decision: There would be a discussion on India's application but no decision in this meeting.

The moment the NSG chairperson decided the norms, India knew its chances of being admitted in this round were close to nil. China then took a maximalist position for the criteria to admit a new member stating that it must be a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The Chinese knew that India would never join the NPT since it regarded as unfair and discriminatory ever since its inception in 1968.

Knowing that waiting for the next year's NSG plenary could create fresh problems, India then successfully lobbied to keep the door open for it with an informal panel being formed to evolve a consensus for its membership application. How China's subterfuge at the NSG would affect its bilateral relations with India remains to be seen.