Monsoon, FPI hold key for market

Markets lost momentum to close on a weak note during the week ended due to the absence of any stimulus proposal from Bank of Japan and turbulence in the parliament over the Augusta helicopter deal. The Sensex and the Nifty closed 231 points and 49 points lower at 25,607 and 7,850 respectiv-ely. However, heightened interest was seen in midcap counters signaling retail investor interest.

Despite fears that the Augusta deal imbroglio will disrupt parliament proceedings, optimists expect some key financial agenda to be cleared by the parliament in next few days.

With no major negative surprises in the earnings season, the progress of monsoon will be very closely watched for market trends in the short to medium term. Apart from monsoon, investment pattern of institutional inve-stors, movement of the rupee against the dollar and international crude oil prices will dictate the near-term trend of domestic markets.

It is pertinent to observe that US markets have suffered their deepest weekly decline since early February during the week ended. The turbulence on the Wall Street has been attributed to Japan’s central bank steps and sharp appreciation of yen against the US dollar.

For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading range of 25,000-26,300 and 7,655-8,050 for the indices. Key supports for the indices are at 25,325 and 25,000 and 7,765 and 7,675.

“The whole secret to winning and losing in the stock market is to lose the least amount possible when you are not right.” Market observers advise long-term investors to ignore short-term gyrations in the stock market and not get caught up in the earnings volatility.

Stock Scan Cigniti Technologies provides independent software testing services in India, the US, Canada, Europe, Australia, and internationally. It offers test centre, which facilitates the maintenance of software testing life cycle; test the cloud services; test offerings on cloud services; mobile, ERP, big data, etc. It offers its services and solutions to a range of industries, including aerospace, e-commerce, telecom, travel and hospitality and others. With CAGR of 58 per cent in last two years and rated by Forbes as one of the best under-$1 billion category companies, the stock is good bet for four figure target in the medium term.

Rajshree Sugars and Chemicals engages in the sugar, distillery, power, and biotechnology businesses in India. Its sugar segment manufactures and sells white crystal sugar. Its cogeneration segment generates electricity with bagasse as fuel through three units with a total capacity of 54 MW. It also offers bio-products, incl-uding bio-fertilisers, bio pesticides, etc. The recent spurt in retail sugar prices and lower inventories spell sweet times for well managed sugar companies in next few quarters. Buy on declines for target price of `100.

Kajaria Ceramics manufactures and sells cera-mic and vitrified tiles across the country. Its products include ceramic wall and floor tiles, polished vitrified tiles, glazed vitrified tiles, and sanitary ware and fittings, as well as adhesives for ceramic and vitrified tiles, and unsanded grout. It also exports its products to approximately 20 countries. Buy on declines for target price of `1,600.

F&O Despite the meltdown on the settlement day, Nifty ended 1.1 per cent higher for April series. Market wide rollovers were on hi-gher side at 84.6 per cent, highest in the past one ye-ar. Defining the Nifty ran-ge, in the option segment highest open interest was seen at 8200 call option and 7700 put option.

Heightened interest was seen in Banks, Realty, Auto and Metal counters. Stock specific buying was seen in IT and Pharma. With NPA mess getting addressed by RBI, worst appears to be over for bank stocks. Renewed bu-ying interest was seen in select pharma counters. Buy on declines Lupin, Granules and Cipla.

Exide Inds and UPL have shown good revenue traction. Buy for target prices of Rs200 and Rs700 in next few months. With the passage of Real Estate Bill, experts say the sector will attract huge FDI and is poised for revival.

Stocks looking good are Arvind, Adani Ports, ACC, Biocon, DLF, GMR Infra, Kotak Bank, Sun TV, TechMahindra, Vedanta and Zee Tele.

C. Kutumba Rao is an avid follower of stock markets. This newspaper is not liable for decisions made on the basis of this column. Views expressed in the article are personal views of the writer.