It’s a classic case of jobless growth. While Tajikistan has been successful in maintaining GDP growth of 7.2% per annum during 1997-2015, this period also witnessed an abnormally low rate of job creation.

More importantly, non-farm jobs, particularly in the industry and services, have remained limited. In the absence of growing employment opportunities in the modern sectors of the economy, agriculture absorbs the bulk of the labour force.

However, labour productivity in this sector is low, which explains the low standard of living of the majority of the population.

Tajikistan’s higher growth has mainly emanated from huge inflows of remittances from migrants working in the Russian Federation, which accounted for 41% of GDP in 2015. Besides this, exports of aluminum and cotton have also played a major role in supporting high GDP growth.

However, remittances carry with them an element of uncertainty, and the international prices of both cotton.