Why China will mend ways to defuse border tension and not boast of 1962

The Sikkim border stand-off between India and China continues at Doklam - an area contested by both Bhutan and China - even three weeks after the two armies came face-to-face.

China has accused India of challenging its territorial sovereignty and infringing the Panchsheel - 5-point principle - that theoretically guide the diplomatic relations between New Delhi and Beijing.

China has warned India that if its troops did not pull back from Doklam - where Indian Army went at the request of the Bhutanese Army as per the security arrangement between the two countries under India-Bhutan Friendship Treaty - the situation may lead to a war between the two of the biggest nations of Asia.

Chinese newspaper Global Times - which is considered as the official viewpoint of the communist government - said that Beijing should give a call for independent Sikkim, whose accession to India has not been challenged by China.

But, all this posturing by China seems to be mere attempts to bully its neighbour as the ground reality and changed geostrategic dynamics would desist it from launching any misadventure against India.

1967 SETBACK TO CHINA

Five years after India Army suffered humiliation at the hands of People's Liberation Army of China in 1962, the two armies engaged in another battle. But, the fortunes had reversed.

The 1967 mini-battle was fought in the same Sikkim sector of India-China border. Chinese troops had intruded into Indian territories. Two incidents occurred.

First exchange happened in a stretch between Nathu La and Sebu La which the Indian forces were fencing. The second battle was fought at Cho La - not far from Nathu La in Sikkim.

On both occasions, Indian Army got better of the PLA. Over 80 Indian Army soldiers lost their lives while number of casualties on Chinese side was estimated at around 400. China had to back off on both instances.

1986-87 OPERATION FALCON

Indian and Chinese forces were in similar situation as of present Doklam stand-off in 1986 at Sumdorong Chu north of Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh. India used to keep the post guarded seasonally - present during summers and left unattended during harsh winters.

When the Indian forces returned to their post in 1986, they found Chinese having intruded there. India lodged protest but Chinese Army would not budge.

When it became clear that Chinese were upping their ante to alter the McMohan Line - that separates Arunachal Pradesh from Tibet - Indian Army under General K Sunderji launched Operation Falcon.

There was no road connecting Sumdorong Chu from Tawang or nearby Indian Army camp and Chinese presence was growing in the region. General K Sunderji used Russian Mi-26 helicopter to air land the entire brigade at Zemithang.

Indian troops took positions at Hathung La overlooking Sumdorong Chu. In 1962, Chinese Army held high altitude positions. This time, Indian forces were positioned at vantage point. Soon, flag meeting took place and Chinese quietly left the area.

INDIAN ARMY IS BATTLE HARDENED

Chinese PLA has not fought any major war since 1962 except 1979 war with Vietnam and is short on practical experience of battle. On the other hand, Indian Army has fought two and a half wars after 1962 in 1965, 1971 and 1999.

In 1979, China invaded Vietnam. The war went on for 27 days. Though China claimed victory and was better of the two militaries, it could not make Vietnam pull back its forces from locations Beijing had objected to. Further, China lost an estimated over 28,000 troops.

In 1962, Indian leadership refused to use Air Force saying that a diplomatic resolution to the crisis was preferable to them. Since then, Indian Air Force has gone from strength to strength. On the other hand, Chinese Air Force has been largely untested in battles.

Another aspect that may prevent Chinese leadership from escalating border tension is the logistics issues for the PLA at Doklam plateau. In the event of war, the PLA's logistic line up will have to go back to long distance to ensure supplies. The bases of supplies are very far off from the site of stand-off. The line of supplies is easier for Indian Army from both Sikkim and Bhutan. The route is well established.

THE BALANCE OF ECONOMICS

China has a favourable balance of trade with India. The trade volume between the two countries stands at about USD 71 billion. China is the net beneficiary of the bilateral trade.

India posted a trade deficit in excess of USD 46.5 billion for the last year. Chinese manufacturers exported goods worth USD 58.33 billion while Indian entities shipped out only over USD 11.76 billion.

As the manufacturing hub of the world, China has the biggest free market of the world in its neighbourhood. Chinese policy makers would not like to jeopardize the prospects of its own manufacturers over Doklam plateau.

THE RIPPLE EFFECT FOR CHINA

China has some sort boundary differences with almost all 14 neighbours. All of them don't have friendly relations with China. On the other hand, some of the neighbours of China have come closer to India.

All the neighbours of China are watching the border stand-off with India. If the situation escalates to a war, it would send an alarming signal to others. China can't expect all the neighbours especially, Japan and Vietnam to remain unaffected if it enters into war with India.

Further, this may also hamper China's One-Belt-One-Road (OBOR) initiative, which tops the priority list of President Xi Jinping, who is eyeing the role of global leader for his country.

China has stated that Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not hold bilateral talks during G-20 summit at Hamburg in Germany. The reason could be the embarrassment Xi Jinping had to face when PM Modi raised the issue of incursion by PLA in Chumar area of Ladakh while the Chinese President was visiting India in 2014.

An embarrassed Chinese President had to then take correctives steps following which Chinese troops retreated. China might just have avoided a similar embarrassment to President Xi Jinping at an international forum.

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