Himachal Pradesh election results 2017: Will hill state continue alternating between BJP, Congress?

Virbhadra Singh and Prem Kumar Dhumal are mass leaders in their own right in Himachal Pradesh. While Virbhadra Singh is popularly called "raja sahib" in Himachal Pradesh, Dhumal is considered the only challenger to the incumbent chief minister.

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Will hill state continue alternating between BJP, Congress?
Will hill state continue alternating between BJP, Congress?

In Short

  • Himachal Pradesh has had a trend of alternating between Congress and BJP.
  • PM Modi and Congress President Rahul Gandhi have campaigned extensively for the polls.
  • The real battle is between BJP's PK Dhumal and Congress's Virbhadra Singh.

Nation awaits with bated breath for the Himachal Pradesh election results and Gujarat Vidhan Sabha election 2017 results.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and newly elected Congress President Rahul Gandhi have led the election campaigns for their parties from the front for both Gujarat election 2017 and Himachal Pradesh election 2017.

Himachal Pradesh voted for its 68-member Assembly on November 9 in a bilateral contest between the ruling Congress and the BJP for the election results.

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Interestingly, the BJP ousted the Congress in 1990 and the Congress avenged defeat in 1993. The saffron party formed the government with the help of Himachal Vikas Congress in 1998 and the Congress was back in power in 2003. The BJP made a comeback in 2007.

The Congress's move forced the BJP to alter its strategy of going into the polls projecting PM Modi's face. The BJP declared Prem Kumar Dhumal its chief ministerial candidate. With this, the Himachal Pradesh Assembly election 2017 became what it has been since 1998: a Virbhadra Singh versus Prem Kumar Dhumal affair.

POPULARITY BATTLE

Virbhadra Singh and Prem Kumar Dhumal are mass leaders in their own right in Himachal Pradesh. Both enjoy sizeable support within the party and outside. While Virbhadra Singh is popularly called "raja sahib" in Himachal Pradesh, Dhumal is considered the only challenger to the incumbent chief minister.

Virbhadra Singh hails from the erstwhile royal family of Himachal Pradesh. Whispers in Congress circles have it that Rahul Gandhi was forced to announce his name as chief ministerial candidate. He had apparently threatened to break Himachal Pradesh Congress with 27 other MLAs.

On the other hand, Dhumal was not an automatic choice for the BJP. Reports suggest that the BJP leadership preferred Union minister JP Nadda as the chief ministerial candidate in Himachal Pradesh. The BJP leadership is said to have been wary of the allegations against Dhumal and his son Anurag Thakur. But, Dhumal is believed to have outsmarted the party leadership.

CASTE AND PERSONALITY

Himachal Pradesh is one of the few states in the country where elections have not been polarised along religious divide. Rajputs have dominated the electoral politics in the state. Himachal Pradesh has about 38 per cent Rajput, 26 per cent Dalits, 18 per cent Brahmin, 16.5 per cent others including about 2 per cent Muslims and 1.5 per cent Gaddi population.

Both Virbhadra Singh and Prem Kumar Dhumal are Rajput leaders. Both have fought internal party battles to emerge at the top. While Dhumal faces tough competition from Nadda, Singh seems to have got better of Himachal Congress chief Sukhvinder Sukhu.

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This leaves the electoral battle in the state equally poised.

The BJP's war cry is Mission 50-plus while the Congress has its own Repeat Mission-2012.

INDIA TODAY-AXIS HIMACHAL PRADESH EXIT POLL IN NUTSHELL:
  1. Continuing its winning streak, the BJP is predicted to win 47-55 seats in Himachal Pradesh.
  2. The ruling Congress will be reduced to 13-20 seats.
  3. While the BJP is likely to get 50 per cent vote share, the Congress will get 41 per cent and others nine per cent.
  4. Brahmins, Kshatriyas, Rajput, Bhaniya are largely with BJP and contribute more than 50 per cent of the electorate.
  5. The Congress got most of its support from the Muslims and the SCs/STs.
  6. While the poor mostly supported Congress, the middle class and above opted for the BJP.
  7. The BJP's support cuts across age group and education.
  8. Farmers, unemployed, homemakers, students, professionals and working class all back the BJP.
  9. Both rural and urban voters opt for BJP as do male and female voters.
  10. Those surveyed think a common government in the Centre and state will lead to a better life.