As Atanasio Monserrate joins NDA, Manohar Parrikar is halfway home

Manohar Parrikar knows he must win the August 23 Panaji by-election to remain chief minister of Goa. It had all seemed a big challenge until July 25, when Atanasio Monserrate, the opposition Congress's most likely choice against Parrikar, joined the Goa Forward Party, an ally of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

Panaji had been abuzz that Parrikar would have a tough time if challenged by Monserrate, particularly owing to the chief minister's vacillation over the shifting of offshore casinos, illegal mining and the Vishva Hindu Parishad's call for a ban on beef consumption in the state. Monserrate, known for his politicking skills, is very popular. His wife Jennifer is a Congress MLA from neighbouring Taligaon, and a front he heads is in power in the Panaji Municipal Corporation. But an astute Parrikar used his personal rapport with Monserrate to cajole him into the NDA fold.

Stumped by the development, Goa Congress chief Shantaram Naik had proposed former Panaji mayor Ashok Naik as a candidate against Parrikar. Naik, who is known for his clean image, quit the BJP in November 2016 to join the Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM), an outfit floated by RSS workers and sympathisers to make Konkani mandatory in primary education in Goa. After Naik turned down the Congress's offer, the party has finalised its state spokesperson, Girish Chodankar, as its candidate against Parrikar.

But the GSM, which claims sizeable support in Panaji and would like to see Parrikar lose, isn't sure about fielding Naik. While its president Anand Shirodkar says anyone who can defeat Parrikar will be fielded, vice-president Kiran Nayak wants the Congress to withdraw from the contest and support the GSM nominee.

It's all music to the BJP's ears. "We are eagerly waiting for the by-poll," says state BJP chief Vinay Tendulkar, confident of victory. Some of his confidence is based on the fact that Parrikar has been winning the Panaji seat since 1994, except for the brief hiatus when he moved to Delhi as Union defence minister.

There's a second by-election at Valpoi, where state health minister Vishwajit Rane, who defected from the Congress within a week of being elected in March, is the BJP candidate. He faces a stiff challenge from a younger rival, Roy Naik, fielded by the Congress. Notably, even if it wins both Panaji and Valpoi, the BJP, which has 12 seats, will remain eight short of a simple majority and dependent on its allies.