Doklam: When George Fernandes called China as threat no. 1 and how he stood vindicated
Almost two decades ago, the then Defence Minister George Fernades had called China as threat number one. Doklam standoff today vindicates the stand nuanced by Fernandes and criticised by experts.
In Short
- In 1998, George Fernandes had labelled China as threat number one.
- China has been trying to encircle India by forging military alliances.
- Doklam standoff raises security concerns for India.
Even more than one month after the standoff broke out between India and China over Doklam plateau of Bhutan, there is no sign of relent.
India and China have dug their heels deeper at Doklam. China is reported to have mobilised large number of soldiers in Tibet and transported tones of ammunition in the region. India has also increased its preparedness in the Sikkim sector, though emphasis is on resolving the standoff diplomatically.
China seems a real threat and some observers are of the view that even though a full-fledged war is ruled out skirmishes can happen over Doklam issue. A long military standoff between India and China was not expected. But, it has not come as a surprise.
Former Defence Minister George Fernandes, 19 years ago, had identified China as the "potential threat number one". Fernandes had made this remark during a television interview which had evoked sharp criticism from all quarters. But, the subsequent developments have shown that Fernandes had called a spade a spade.
HOW FERNANDES GOT IT RIGHT
In the TV interview, Fernandes had emphatically spelt out China's string of pearls policy to encircle India. Fernandes also gave a momentum to defence-strategic response by India to counter China's string of pearls policy.
George Fernandes had then said, "China has provided Pakistan with both missile as well as nuclear know-how... China has its nuclear weapons stockpiled in Tibet right along our borders."
"On the eastern frontier, the Chinese have trained and equipped the Myanmarese Army... From 1,70,000 six years ago, its strength today is 4,50,000 and by the turn of the century, it will be half a million. Myanmar's population is only 42 million," Fernandes had said elaborating Chinese scheme of things.
Currently, Myanmar has 5.15 lakh (more than half-a-million) military personnel.
Fernandes also claimed that China had renovated 11 airstrips in Tibet to house new-generation Sukhoi combat aircraft. Based on his assessment of Beijing's strategic approach towards New Delhi, George Fernandes insisted that China must be perceived as a threat by "any person who is concerned with India's security."
"China has taken them (Coco Islands - where China has now developed a military base) on loan, where there is a surveillance establishment which is monitoring India," Fernandes had said.
Fernandes remarks were viewed also in the context of the Chinese Dong Feng missile, which was the first such missile under the possession of Beijing which was capable of striking targets deep in Indian territory. However, many international experts refuted this analogy.
REACTION TO FERNANDES
Made only days ahead of Pokran nuclear tests in 1998, the remarks by Fernandes had created a flutter in the political and international circles. Fernades was bitterly criticised for upping the ante against China in India's strategic preparedness.
China was quick to reject the suggestion saying, "The view is absolutely ridiculous and unworthy of refutation."
In response to George Fernandes' reference to China-Myanmar defence pacts, the then Chinse army chief FU Quanyou had said, "China does not seek military alliances... nor does it station any troops abroad or establish overseas military bases."
The recent developments in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (along the China-Pakistan-Economic Corridor) and Djibouti prove beyond doubt that Fernandes was right in his assessment. Chinese troops are present in the PoK while Beijing had opened its military base in Djibouti.
The government of India had not backed Fernandes for targeting China. The PMO had said that the statement of Fernades was not the "considered opinon" of the government. The External Affairs Ministry had remarked, "No comment. There is nothing more to add to it."
Former Prime Minister IK Gujral had called Fernandes an "adventurist" Defence Minister and the response of PMO as "meekish". Salman Khursdhit, the then Congress spokesperson, had said, "His statements are an attempt by back door to reverse the process of peaceful relations with China."
WHY CHINA REMAINED THREAT NUMBER ONE
George Fernandes was the 30th Defence Minister of India and none before him had labeled China as potential threat number one. Fernandes had made the remark less than two months after taking charge as the Defence Minister of India.
The short duration in office was one of the factors raised by his critics. Sitaram Yechury of the CPI(M) had said, "He should tell us how within a matter six weeks the threat perception has changed so dramatically."
Fernandes had explained in his interview the reason why perception about China (not being a threat) was not based on ground reality. "I think there is a reluctance to face the reality that China's intentions need to be questioned," he had said.
There have been consistent Chinese efforts at increasing its military capability in the Tibet region. According to Defence Ministry's annual report 1985-86, "China has considerably improved its tactical position in Tibet. Its modernisation programme has pronounced military overtones which have obvious security implications for us."
IN DOCUMENTS OF DEFENCE MINISTRY
In 1987-88, the Ministry of Defence report said, "China... maintains significantly higher force levels compared to the past."
The supply of weapons to the countries in India's neighbourhood has been a concern for India for about 25 years. In 1990-91, Ministry of Defence annual report said, "Sales of arms to countries in our neighbourhood is likely to hamper the process of de-escalation of regional tensions."
Another Defence Ministry report from 1990s, said, "Pakistan's acquisition of sophisticated weapon systems, including missiles, from China has a direct bearing on India's security."
Defence Ministry annual report for 1997-98 said, "The progress China has made in recent years in augmenting its nuclear arsenal and missile capabilities will continue to have relevance for India's security concerns."
The 2016-17 annual report of the Defence Ministry also mentions the latest restructuring of the People's Liberation Army of China with concern. It said, "China initiated significant restructuring of the People's Liberation Army, aimed at stronger control by the Party (the Communist Party of China)..."
PRESENT STATUS
The restructuring of the PLA preceded the ongoing Doklam standoff. The stubborn attitude of the Chinese in the present standoff is credited to the overhaul of Chinese military set up by President Xi Jinping.
Doklam incident has only proven George Fernandes correct in his assessment of the Chinese danger. Incidentally, Fernandes' predecessor in Defence Ministry and SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav yesterday made a similar observation in the Lok Sabha.
Mulayam Singh Yadav said, "China, not Pakistan, is our enemy," adding, "China is the biggest problem."
Interestingly, Fernandes was reluctant to take charge of defence portfolio as he did not have a suitable wardrobe for ceremonial occasions yet he went on to predict dangers and threats to India's security accurately.
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