Does BJP stand a chance in saffronising Kerala, a state with 54% Hindus?

The CPI(M) and the RSS have been at loggerheads in Kannur in north Kerala for over four decades now, both giving as good as they got as the Sangh parivar outfit made inroads into the communist bastion. And that is where matters stood till last year's state elections when, after years of being no-hopers in the state, the BJP finally managed a seat in the assembly. The path to making electoral inroads had opened, and the RSS-BJP was eager to pull out all the stops.

Of late, political violence in Kerala has been a matter of some debate, and the party was quick to latch on to it. A concerted, polarising campaign with the theme, 'Against jehadi-red terror', was set in motion, the twin targets being Islamist terrorists and the ruling Marxists. BJP president Amit Shah flagged off the the 'janaraksha yatra' on October 3 and joined the march on the opening day. Even Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath was roped in for a day during which he reasoned that the state should "act against love jihad, which is a growing concern in Kerala and contiguous Karnataka".

Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath during the yatra in Kannur

These are just some elements in a virulent campaign in which the BJP and other entities of the Sangh Parivar accuse the Left Front government and CPI(M) chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan of "annihilating its political rivals". The RSS-BJP claims that it has lost 125 workers to the violence since 2001 (Kannur police records between 2007 and 2017 put the figure at 37; 17 from the RSS-BJP, for the CPI(M), 16) .

Worse still, the campaigners allege, is the fact that the highest incidence of violence is in the chief minister's hometown, Pinarayi, where 14 of them were killed. Significantly, Shah missed the march through the town, as he returned to Delhi for other consultations, but promised to return before the conclusion of the 14-day yatra, on October 17 at the southern end of the state.

This is only part of the BJP's ambitious expansion plan for the state. The party is hoping a sustained campaign against the LDF will propel the party into emerging as the leading opposition in the state, eclipsing the Congress-led UDF. But for this, both the party and the militant RSS must enlist the rank and file like never before. "The ongoing effort has already shaken the CPI(M) bases in north Kerala. It's only by strengthening the party and associate organisations that we will make a dent," says a senior BJP leader, adding that "the response so far is encouraging".

Clearly, it is not just wishful thinking. "We have 200,000 active cadre and another 193,000 followers. There are 5,200 daily and 800 weekly shakhas now. All this we achieved in just five years," claims RSS state secretary P. Gopalan Kutty Master. The spurt is significant, with the RSS becoming a draw among students and other youth. Kannur tops in this followed by Alappuzha and Thrissur districts in central Kerala. Meanwhile, the growth of Sangh affiliates such as the trade union Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh, which in some places has dislodged the Congress-affiliated INTUC, has also helped the BJP's growth.

Yet, it is far from enjoying widespread appeal, despite the fact that 54.7 per cent of the population is Hindu. The irony is that in the country's most literate state, the Hindus are still caste-driven, making it a greater challenge for the BJP. Which is another reason why veteran party leader O. Rajagopal, elected to the legislative assembly last year, took so long to get there. Like his Nemom constituency, the neighbouring Kazhakoottam and Vattiyurkavu assembly constituencies (also part of the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency) have long been RSS strongholds, but the numbers never translated into seats.

"It is the RSS's success in attracting a section of the Hindus that is enabling the BJP here," says political commentator J. Ajith Kumar. "They may use a similar strategy, projecting the RSS as the sole protectors of the Hindu majority to garner support. The constant harping on love jihad and red terror could spark a sectarian divide." Other analysts are sceptical, though. "The RSS and the rest of the Sangh parivar have no future in the state as it practises 'annihilation politics'. Its anti-minority tag will also not help in Kerala," says former MP Dr Sebastian Paul. He points to the "demographic reality of Kerala" as the major challenge. "How do you saffronise a state with 26.7 per cent Muslims and 18.4 per cent Christians in a population of 33.34 million?"

Echoing similar sentiments, Malayalam short story writer and ex-bureaucrat N.S. Madhavan says, "The future of the RSS is bleak because it has already hit saturation point, crossed the cusp of optimal growth in recent years. Its halo has little appeal as it intimidates the very soul of the state." In his view, this strategy of spreading disinformation will boomerang on the party.

However, party president Shah has definite plans - he's eying the Ezhava vote bank, which accounts for about 39 per cent of the population. The Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), floated by Vellapally Nateshan of the Sree Narayana Dharama Paripalana Yogam, an Ezhava outfit, was purportedly the enabler in the BJP increasing the NDA vote share in Kerala to 15.3 per cent in the 2016 assembly polls. "Traditionally, the Ezhavas have been CPI(M) backers. So only by winning them over can the BJP diffuse the clout of the Marxists. They have gained marginal acceptance in some pockets of central Kerala by aligning with the BDJS," explains former legislator and Kerala Congress (Mani) faction leader Joseph M. Puthussery. That said, the BJP's ties with the BDJS have been rocky. Just months back, a vacillating Vellapally was heard badmouthing the BJP central leadership on TV, though he soon changed tack again.

With all that is happening in the state, the CPI(M) still seems unperturbed. "Kerala's secular society has never capitulated to their attempt to paint the state in a communal colour," says state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishan. "We are confident that we can fight them politically. The people of Kerala back our progressive agenda as the party stands for development of the state."

But on the ground, they are not taking any chances. In a deft counter strategy, the Marxists are also organising similar events like their own 'shobha yatra' on the occasion of Sri Krishna Jayanti on September 12, and now a series of rallies to counter what BJP leaders have said during the janaraksha yatra. The BJP too realises that it is in for a long war in the state. As former state president and lawyer P.S. Sreedharan Pillai puts it, "Our plan is not merely to increase vote share but build up quality cadre in the state."