Numbers game after AIADMK merger: Why Tamil Nadu CM E Palaniswami can't sit back and relax even now

Many must have hoped that the triumphant mood that reigned at the AIADMK's headquarters on Monday, when two of its veteran leaders finally merged their factions, marked the cathartic end to a protracted political drama. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami and his new deputy, former CM O Pannerselvam, have brought together 111 MLAs.

But that's still six short of the halfway mark in the Tamil Nadu Assembly, whose strength stands reduced to 334 by Jayalalithaa's death and the exclusion of the Speaker.

ENTER DINAKARAN

The man who could lay waste to Palaniswami's and Pannerselvam's achievement is TTV Dinakaran, the nephew of the now-sidelined AIADMK leader VK Sasikala - a close confidante of 'Amma's.' Panneerselvam made Sasikala's and Dinakaran's ouster one of the conditions for yesterday's merger.

But as many as 19 AIADMK MLAs support Dinakaran. Today, they told Tamil Nadu Governor C Vidyasagar Rao in a memorandum that Palaniswami was "corrupt" and that he'd encouraged "corruption at several levels."

They've told Rao they have no confidence in the chief minister, but didn't say they were withdrawing support to the government as a whole.

"We want to show our strength. It is to ensure EPS realises we are important for (the) AIADMK. We are not hurrying to topple the government but want to issue a threat so they don't throw us out completely," said a source in Dinakaran's camp.

SUPPORT FOR DINAKARAN TO INCREASE?

Sources say Thamim Ansari and Karunas, two of the three independent MLAs who wrote to voice support for Dinakaran ahead of a massive rally held in Melur last week, may side with him.

MLA Thopu Venkatachalam, who wasn't with the group of legislators who called on the Governor today, is also likely to join the Dinakaran camp.

This means that Dinakaran could end up with 22 lawmmakers - a crushing blow for his rivals in the newly-united front in power, who still don't have the 'magic number' of MLAs.

Meanwhile, DMK President MK Stalin told the news agency ANI that he'd been informed that a total of 22 AIADMK MLAs didn't support Palaniswami. He called for a new trust vote.

Will the Edappadi Palaniswami government survive the Dinakaran test? We'll have to wait and see.

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