Trump presidency: Through the looking glass

It was a eureka moment for comedian Alex Edelman. Even after the press conference on Wednesday, where an extremely pugilistic Donald Trump bashed on Buzzfeed (failing pile of garbage) and CNN (totally fake news!!) , the soon-to-be leader of the free world was in no mood to relent. "At 9:00 pm, @CNN, of all places, is doing a Special Report on my daughter, Ivanka. Considering it is CNN, can't imagine it will be great!," Trump tweeted five days after the slugfest.

Wrote Edelman on twitter, "I finally figured it out, Donald. All this pettiness? You're just deep undercover pretending to be a feckless idiot. It is a genius move. The rest of the world thinks only a moron would be this insecure in public. But you've got a plan. You must have one. Because no one is this unpresidential without some reason. It's all a smokescreen. Well done, sir." 

For now, however, the issue is immaterial; too early to say whether the Schrodinger's cat was really dead or even worse — getting ready to pounce out of the enclosure and threaten to nuke China for devaluing its currency. Or deport Mexicans. Or ban Muslims. Or hold meetings with far right leaders like Marine Le Pen. Or tweet about multiplying the US nuclear arsenal. 

Analysts are stumped and the global community is in jitters. "Unpredictable and disruptive," they called him. What will he do next? After an year long campaign (where he fat-shamed a former Miss Universe and bragged indirectly about the size of his genitalia) and an equally cringeworthy month-and-a-half after victory (taunting China, calling NATO 'obsolete' and dumping on the UN as a 'club for people to chat and have a good time'), we take a look at the possible indications of what lies ahead in the future.

Who will blink first — China or US?

Not long after his victory in the elections, Trump upended a long standing US policy that recognised 'One China' and attended a phone call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. This was the first bilateral contact between the US and Taiwan since Washington ended its diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979 when former US President Jimmy Carter formally declared Beijing as the only government of China. Washington closed its embassy in Taipei in 1980. A visibly unhappy China said, "We firmly oppose any official interaction or military contact between the US and Taiwan." The paradigm shift becomes even more apparent when compared with Obama's docility and relative silence in the face of China's increasing aggressiveness and incursions in South China Sea.  

In the month that followed, the situation escalated. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump said the 'One China' policy was up for negotiation. The official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, China Daily, hit back. "If Trump is determined to use this gambit in taking office, a period of fierce, damaging interactions will be unavoidable, as Beijing will have no choice but to take off the gloves," the publication warned. "It may be costly. But it will prove a worthy price to pay to make the next U.S. president aware of the special sensitivity, and serious consequences of his Taiwan game."

Throughout his campaign, Trump had ragged on China for its devaluing the currency to boost its exports and the 'unfair' deal meted out to the United States in the region. Even more surprising is the 180 degree shift — a role reversal — that seems apparent. Trump's hardline stance against companies outsourcing jobs from US had prompted a warning against protectionism in economic policy from Chinese President Xi Jinping himself. Oh, the irony!

From Russia, with love

Under the Obama administration, the US-Russia relations were at an all time low. What with Russia's involvement in Ukraine conflict to allegations of Russian interference in US elections, the issue reached a flashpoint with Obama expelling Russian ambassadors from country in early January. Trump, who had on numerous occasions expressed his admiration for president Vladimir Putin, refused to accept the intelligence findings on Russian hackers interfering with the election process. "It could be Russia. Or it could even be China," said Trump, at the most recent press conference.

Trump, on numerous occasions, admonished his opponents by claiming that a good US-Russia relationship would only be favourable in the long run. He even appointed Rex Tillerson, chief executive officer of ExxonMobil and a man known for his close relations with Putin, as his secretary of state.

However, what really seems to have worried the US allies are recent statements by Trump who degraded the European Union as one 'not particularly central to the US interests' and NATO as 'obsolete'.

What his policies pan out to be — regarding EU, Russia and the undeniable tension that exists between the two — remains to be seen. Will there be a radical departure from the US policies, which have always placed a united EU as central to the country's global interests? 

The land of perpetual unrest

In the early January, Trump made the most disruptive statement of all. He said that he had not forgotten his campaign promises and that the US embassy in Israel would soon be shifted from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Previous governments had steered clear of the same, given that Jerusalem remains a prickly issue between Palestine and Israel. The US Congress has favoured acknowledging Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state, but a June 2015 Supreme Court judgement had backed the opposing views of President Barack Obama. Trump had made his pro-Israel stance clear while on his campaign trail — he released a statement that "peace will only come when the Palestinians renounce hatred and violence and accept Israel as a Jewish State".

Political analysts argue that the move will only exacerbate the Israel-Palestine conflict — already with the peace accord nowhere in sight. It might also fan flames in the rest of the Arab world.

In the final week of December, Obama had allowed the US abstention from a vote in the UN Security Council, allowing them to adopt a resolution demanding an end to Israeli settlement building in land that Palestinians consider as their own. The resolution was heavily criticised by Israel and the president-elect Donald Trump.

Hapless neighbours

With Trump promising to renegotiate NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement between US, Canada and Mexico), both loonie and peso (currencies of Canada and Mexico) have taken hits. While Trump has preferred to take potshots at Mexico, blaming them for 'illegal immigrants who bring in drugs and rapists', Canada is clearly perturbed at the effect on its economy if Trump reneges on NAFTA. A lion's share of the Canadian exports are meant for the US markets. The Trump administration also signals the end of a rare camaraderie between former president Barack Obama and Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau.

What about Cuba? After being the first US president to visit the country in about a century, Obama even eased the trade embargoes, which had proven to be highly disruptive for Cuban economy. But will it change under president Trump? In November, he tweeted, ""If Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the U.S. as a whole, I will terminate the deal," CNN reported. 

Setting the elephant free

What about India? How will his policies affect the Indian-Americans, who are by no means an insignificant minority in the United States. His statements are conflicting. Through the campaign he proclaimed that he "looked forward to working with Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has been very energetic in reforming India’s bureaucracy".  “I am a big fan of Hindu. I am a big fan of India. If I am elected President, the Indian and Hindu community will have a true friend in the White House." 

In the same breath, he mocked a call centre by faking an Indian accent, claiming, “You can’t allow policies that allows China, Mexico, Japan, Vietnam, India. You can’t allow policies that allows business to be ripped out of the United States like candy from a baby.” Add to that the lack of clarity in his statements regarding future visa policies.