Congress, Samajwadi Party form alliance: 5 reasons why the Bihar-style electoral coalition will fail in UP

Unlike Bihar, where Dalits, Muslims and OBCs largely voted for same faction for the first time since 1990, the ballot choice in Uttar Pradesh would remain fragmented.

New Delhi, Jan 17: Akhilesh Yadav, after defeating the old guards of his family, has consolidated complete control over Samajwadi Party. The upcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections would be contested by Samajwadi Party under his leadership, with no involvement of uncle Shivpal and father Mulayam in the major decision making. The winds of change are already blowing as the victory at Election Commission office has given the Akhilesh camp the green signal to sign a pre-poll pact with Congress.

Although Ghulam Nabi Azad from the Congress, and Ram Gopal Yadav from Samajwadi Party, have confirmed that the pre-poll coalition would be formed, the seat-sharing arrangement is yet to be decided. According to reports, the two parties are also mulling the option of taking Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) on board, to form a Bihar-style mahagathbandhan. However, the chances of such a grand-alliance scripting history is forthcoming UP polls is bleak. Here are 5 reasons why:

Brand Akhilesh vs Brand Nitish

The primary reason why the mahagathbandhan succeeded in Bihar is due to the pro-incumbency enjoyed by Nitish Kumar. Despite being in power for 10 years, Nitish appeared as a heroic figure among his share of electorate. The brand of Nitish Kumar, created by Prashant Kishor, had the substance which sent out an appeal not only within the circles of Bihar, but across the nation. While Akhilesh is battling to emerge out of family shadows in Uttar Pradesh, Nitish was already being projected as a frontrunner to take on Narendra Modi on 2019.

Mayawati bound to galvanize Dalits, dent the Muslim electorate

The Bahujan samaj Party (BSP), despite being a Dalit centric outfit, has allotted more number of tickets to Muslims. The Mayawati-led outfit has fielded 97 Muslim candidates, as compared to 87 Dalits. BSP made a strong pitch to reclaim the loyalty of Muslims, who form 20 per cent of state electorate. Although a section of Muslims have exhibited support for Akhilesh, there is a general confusion among the community regarding their ballot choice.

While Akhilesh is striving hard to keep the Samajwadi Party’s winning electoral equation intact, his own father has raised severe obstacles by accusing him of hobnobbing with the BJP. “Akhilesh is being misguided by Ram Gopal Yadav. He (Ram Gopal) is hand in glove with BJP. He wants to facilitate the entry of communal forces in UP. I will not let this happen. To safeguard Muslims, I can even contest against Akhilesh. People know that I had even put my life on the line to save Babri Masjid from demolition,” Mulayam had said.

Unlike Bihar, where Dalits, Muslims and OBCs largely voted for same faction for the first time since 1990, the ballot choice in Uttar Pradesh would remain fragmented.

Electoral math

In the 2012 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, Congress succeeded in capturing a total vote share of 11.63 per cent. Samajwadi Party on the other hand, occupied 29.15 per cent of the votes. The combined vote share, if repeated in 2017 polls, could assure SP-Congress alliance more than 300 seats, as claimed by Akhilesh Yadav. However, the electoral scenario largely differs between then and now.

BJP, which had grabbed only 15 per cent votes in 2012 polls, grew into the biggest electoral player in 2014 by securing 42.30 per cent of the vote share. On the other hand, Congress was restricted to 7.5 per cent, while Samajwadi Party staggered at 22.2 per cent.

In terms of the electoral inroads made by BJP in 2014, even a combined Congress and Samajwadi Party would struggle to grab a larger share of the electoral pie as compared to the saffron party. For a successful mahagathbandhan in UP, the Congress and Samajwadi Party needed the support of Mayawati’s BSP.

What if Shivpal plays the spoiler

The victory at Election Commission office would be too soon to crown Akhilesh as the king of Samajwadi Party. Mulayam’s 61-year-old brother Shivpal Yadav has devoted nearly three decades in politics and is expected not to go down without a fight. Shivpal had a firm grip on the organization of Samajwadi Party, and is expected to have section of rebel supporters from all zones of Uttar Pradesh. Although Mulayam has nearly been dwarfed by his son in the family battle, it could not be denied that the unity which could be posed by SP moving into the polls is cosmetic to say the least.

2012 and 2017 – Then and now

In 2012, Mayawati was carrying the baggage of an inefficient government, which failed to work as per the expectations of the masses. Mayawati’s tenure was marked with the installation of dozens of elephants and her statues in the parks of Lucknow. People of Uttar Pradesh wanted to change the regime in Lucknow. Apart from the mass electoral appeal of Netaji, young Akhilesh emerged as the ray of hope among youngsters of UP.

However, the conditions have changed in 2017. The SP government, for four and a half years, was being led by four and a half chief ministers, as alleged by Opposition and pollsters. The four unofficial CMs included Mulayam, Shivpal, Azam Khan and Ram Gopal Yadav. The half official CM was Akhilesh. However, the 43-year-old Yadav scion turned the tables on his detractors in the final six months, by not only expelling uncle Shivpal from the cabinet, but also usurping the Samajwadi Party from his father Mulayam.

Amid the ongoing family drama, Akhilesh has succeeded to emerge as a skillful political craftsman, but his electoral base is bound to be dented. Muslims are expected to remain confused as the prime challenger to BJP could not be identified yet. Among Dalits, reports claims that the dominant Jatavs are strongly rallying behind Mayawati, but those of smaller denominations have shifted towards BJP. Interestingly, the India Today-Axis survey pointed out that 56 per cent of non-Yadav OBCs have drifted towards BJP. This reflects from the fact that OBCs constituted the largest block in the first list of candidates issued by BJP.