Excerpts from the speech made by Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr Harsha de Silva, at the public forum organised by the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, January 9, 2017
January 9 marks the 2nd anniversary of an important turning point in Sri Lanka’s recent history. It is the beginning of the 3rd of the five year term of President Maithripala Sirisena. On January 8, 2015, the people of Sri Lanka went to the polls and on the 9th switched from a government which had embarked on a divisive and authoritarian trajectory to one of convergence and National Unity.
For the first time since Independence, traditional rivals in Sri Lankan politics, eschewed adversarial politics to undertake pressing political and economic reforms in the long-term interests of the people. Sri Lankans demonstrated to the world that they could change a well-entrenched government, long considered to be undefeatable, by using a simple tool called the ballot. It was an unexpected outcome to many, both outside and inside of Sri Lanka and demonstrated the importance of democracy.
Optimism in a changing global dynamic
During the last two years, we have achieved some notable successes as well as faced some complex challenges that have slowed down our progress. It is a trajectory that is inevitable in a democracy.
Sri Lankans are a resilient people who sustained a sense of optimism about the potential of their country even in the darkest moments of our history. Now, perhaps for the first time in our contemporary history, the future holds more promise than doubts.
We believe that we are at a stage of economic growth and political maturity, which combined with opportunities presented by global and regional developments, will allow us to propel ourselves to the next phase of development if we play our cards right.
Therefore, it’s with a sense of optimism that I approach this topic of my speech ‘Sri Lanka's Role in the Indian Ocean and the Changing Global Dynamic’.
The moment one hears the two words Sri Lanka his or her mind travels to South Asia. And that is why we are here at the ISAS. However, for centuries Taprobane, Ceylon, Sri Lanka or whatever the island was referred to was the heart of the Indian Ocean.
So, we would like to position Sri Lanka more as that centre of the Indian Ocean.
The future prosperity of our people lies in how well we leverage our location in the Indian Ocean.
In order to accomplish our goals we must be vigilant on regional and global developments that will aid or hinder our path.
The year 2016 was a tumultuous year in politics and economics.
We are witnessing momentous changes in the structure of the global economy brought about by the relentless winds of globalization and the current manifestation of Western neo-liberalism.
It is reasonable to be concerned at the rapid pace of changes, and what it means for our economies.
The effect of Brexit and (and other possible exits from the EU) and the trade policies of the US-President-Elect will take some months, even years, to manifest.
And many will be observing with interest the interactions between China and the incoming US Administration. It is in this context that many say that “Uncertainty is the new normal in business life”. Those countries and organisations which thrive in an era of uncertainty will be those who seize the opportunities presented by these uncertainties and take actions that can avert disasters and promote confidence and recovery.
So the emerging and uncertain global dynamics will present both challenges and opportunities to us in the Indian Ocean.
Sri Lanka’s historical role in the Indian Ocean
Our location has shaped our history so intrinsically for millennia and will continue to be so in the future.
In ancient times, Sri Lanka was important as the half way point between the two great empires of Rome and China and near the equator where navigational winds and monsoon effects changed directions. Therefore, it had strategic geographical advantages where global and navigational contexts were concerned.
The island featured prominently in the Spice Routes which were also known as Maritime Silk Roads. In fact, it is said that cinnamon from Sri Lanka and cassia from China found their way along the Spice Routes to the Middle East as far back as 2,000 BC.
Foreign merchants were attracted to ancient Taprobana because of its importance as a centre of international trade and some of them even settled in the island, particularly Moors, descendants of Arab traders to the island.
They were a dominant influence on the island's international trade in the Polonnaruwa period in the 11th to 13th centuries; a position which they retained till the early decades of the sixteenth century.
An examination of the foreign relations of the island under the Polonnaruwa kings reveals political links with South-East Asia, in particular with Myanmar and Cambodia.
Peace and prosperity along the maritime Silk Road helped increase the volume of trade via the Indian Ocean, from which Sri Lanka naturally profited.
Much of this trade was in luxury goods, and in this respect, Sri Lanka was a transit point as well as a terminal point, the latter due to Sri Lanka’s own considerable luxury products such as gems and pearls.
However, ancient Sri Lanka was largely a self-sufficient agrarian economy and role of trade was a generally peripheral activity.
It was only after the collapse of the ancient hydraulic civilization at the end of the Polonnaruwa period that the country’s rulers began to pay greater attention to the economic possibilities of trade.
Exports of spices, particularly cinnamon, became an increasingly lucrative activity. During the period 13th-15th centuries, Sri Lanka’s position as a trade hub on the East-West maritime route had been established, as had its position as a gateway to India.
Sri Lanka had direct commercial links with Malacca, and also with regions in India such as Gujarat and Bengal.
During the colonial rule by the Portuguese, Dutch and lastly the English, the volume of foreign trade expanded. The tea trade which was started by the British still plays a significant role in the Sri Lankan economy.
However, in the last 500 years the Indian Ocean region lost its geo-political and geo-economic relevance; first to colonial dictates and in thereafter post-colonial cold war concerns.
Sri Lanka's strategic role in the Indian Ocean
Now, for the first time in five centuries, global economic balance of power is once again shifting towards Asia. It is estimated that by 2030, Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined in global power based on GDP, population size, military spending and technological investments.
The global financial system is also moving away, albeit slowly, from the dollar dominated international system to a more multi-currency system.
New consumer markets are emerging all across Asia and the Asian middle class is expanding rapidly. Of the four largest economies of the world; US, China, Japan and India, three are located in Asia.
The busy East-West shipping route passes just six to ten nautical miles south of the island with more than 60,000 ships plying this route annually carrying two-thirds of global petroleum supply and half of all containerized cargo.
Thus, Sri Lanka’s situation in the nautical corridor between the East and West is of importance not only from a geostrategic perspective, but also from maritime economics and security perspectives. We are under no illusion that as a small country, we can change the geo-political realities of the region surrounding us. Thus, a wise foreign policy is essential, not only for the present but to ensure the prosperity and safety of future generations.
Along with many opportunities, the renewed interest will also bring vulnerability to emerging competition among major naval powers.
Part II of this article will appear tomorrow
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