Steelers (+1) over CHIEFS / UNDER 43¹/₂: As a spiteful parting gift, Ndamukong Suh compelled Ben Roethlisberger to don a walking boot as he left the premises of the Steelers-Dolphins wild-card matchup. Kansas City flipped from underdog to favoritism on that news, and so the Chiefs remain.
But as game as they come, Roethlisberger is expected to answer the call, and face Chiefs coach Andy Reid, one of the great “two-weeks-to-prepare” coaches in NFL annals, and a consistent winner in Philadelphia and Kansas City. But Reid never has enjoyed the consistent services of a great quarterback, and if Alex Smith steps up to earn that mantle over the next couple of years, we would be pleased to acknowledge it, but haven’t yet seen consistent evidence.
Roethlisberger? Another story, though his foot injury is virtually certain to limit his mobility to a meaningful extent. Especially because of Kansas City’s modest rush-defense capabilities, Le’Veon Bell’s sustained effectiveness will help moderate all-out pressure on the Pittsburgh quarterback, and even if Antonio Brown doesn’t go wild against the Chiefs’ capable secondary people, he remains a threat.
To spare the public the worst aspects of coping with the projected ice storm expected to dominate into Sunday afternoon, kickoff was shifted to 8:20 p.m. Eastern — with the considerable rain left in the forecast likely to benefit Bad-Weather Ben.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce represent significant advances in the Chiefs’ offensive capabilities, and a hometown win would not shock us, but we’re wedded to the established class, as the weather moderates the scoring.
Steelers, 23-20
COWBOYS (-5) over Packers / OVER 52: Though it’s clear that Dallas is the more-public of these two darlings this week, we’re still compelled to walk this way in this setup, despite the relative inexperience of Cowboys QB Dak Prescott.
Aaron Rodgers has experienced a good deal more while treading NFL playing fields in this life than has Prescott, and the only other quarterback doing business these days that’s his current equal in the practical-savvy/technical-competence departments is Tom Brady. And he has been a dynamic postseason underdog at Green Bay’s controls.
Our primary concern is whether the Packers have peaked too early, with their half-dozen wins to close out their regular season, followed by that sensational final 32 minutes against the Giants. Rodgers and friends might wish they had some of those points to put on the board at Jerry Jones’ gaudy playpen, especially because team officials have confirmed they will be operating without key wideout Jordy Nelson, who absorbed a vicious hit to his ribs in the wild-card game.
With those caveats, look to the Cowboys, who finally are equipped the right way after a decade-plus of fiddling, with a slick offensive line, multiple reliable wideouts, running back Ezekiel Elliott (a high-risk draft gamble that has worked out splendidly, short-term) and Prescott, who has displayed supernatural poise for a fourth-round draft choice, and has had four months to firm up his grip. The Packers’ defensive interior figures to have problems with Elliott, which opens everything else up for Prescott, and foreshadows potential possession-time difficulties for the visitors.
Without the ball, Rodgers isn’t so much a threat. Given the weight of the evidence:
Cowboys, 31-24.
Wild-card weekend: 3-1 Sides; 2-2 Over/Unders.