Deutsche Bank expects the Chinese government to focus on deleveraging the financial and SOE sector in 2017. This should lead to higher rates, moderate credit growth and boost debt restructuring.
As net interbank lenders, big banks are likely to benefit from higher rates. In contrast, smaller banks may suffer from rising funding costs, shadow banking tightening and asset yield pressure, said the research house.
DB expects big banks to trade in a dividend yield range of 5-6% and sees 15-20% upside potential. It also adjusted its target prices for the Chinese banks it covers as follows:
Name Target Price Rating
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ICBC (01398) HK$5.72 to HK$5.73 Buy
CCB (00939) HK$6.65 to HK$6.67 Buy
ABC (01288) HK$3.58 to HK$3.56 Hold
BOC (03988) HK$4.09 to HK$4.20 Buy
BoCOM (03328) HK$6.15 to HK$6.13 Hold
CMB (03968) HK$22.88 to HK$23.37 Buy
CNCB (00998) HK$4.65 to HK$4.26 Hold
MSB (01988) HK$7.85 to HK$7.91 Hold
CEB (06818) HK$3.40 to HK$3.10 Hold
CRCB (03618) HK$5.11 to HK$5.26 Hold
Huishang (03698) HK$2.81 to HK$2.89 Sell
BOCQ (01963) HK$5.20 to HK$5.28 Sell
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