Predictions for order of finish in every conference

— -- On Jan. 12, 2016, Wisconsin was 9-9 on the season. The Badgers had lost to Western Illinois, Milwaukee and Marquette on their home floor, lost four of their first five conference games, and lost their era-defining coach (Bo Ryan) to retirement.

One season earlier, on Dec. 22, 2014, the Purdue Boilermakers wrapped up their nonconference slate with a home loss to Gardner Webb. It was their second such bad home loss to date; the first came to North Florida. They were 8-5.

Those Boilermakers would finish with a 12-6 record in conference play en route to the NCAA tournament. One year later, the Badgers would do the same, ending their season in the Sweet 16.

In November, before the season began, we attempted to predict the final 2016-17 standings in every conference in college basketball. We've updated those predictions based on the hefty data set provided by six weeks of nonconference results, which is, or at least should be, a slightly easier task. But as Wisconsin and Purdue and dozens of other teams have shown us in the past few seasons alone, the nonconference portion of the calendar can be misleading -- and, even this far into the season, the possibilities for surprise still abound.

American Athletic Conference

In the preseason, it's hard not to be tantalized by talent, which is why UConn was such a popular American title pick in October, one good enough to hold off a tough, experienced Cincinnati bunch. After a 5-5 start, it's not clear UConn is all that much better than Memphis or Central Florida -- while the Bearcats look like the clear class of the league.

1. Cincinnati Bearcats
2. SMU Mustangs
3. Houston Cougars
4. Connecticut Huskies
5. Temple Owls
6. Memphis Tigers
7. UCF Knights
8. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
9. East Carolina Pirates
10. South Florida Bulls
11. Tulane Green Wave

ACC

Rosters as loaded as Duke's (see: Kentucky '13-14) can turn whole months of their schedule into bloodless inevitabilities. The Blue Devils have kept things, well, interesting. Yet despite it all, the injuries and minutes management and Grayson Allen's latest heel turn -- and the very real threats from Virginia, North Carolina, and Louisville -- Mike Krzyzewski's team still looks like the ACC's best bet. ( Luke Kennard, take a bow.)

1. Duke Blue Devils
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
3. Virginia Cavaliers
4. Louisville Cardinals
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6. Florida State Seminoles
7. Clemson Tigers
8. Miami Hurricanes
9. Syracuse Orange
10. Virginia Tech Hokies
11. NC State Wolfpack
12. Pittsburgh Panthers
13. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
14. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
15. Boston College Eagles

Big 12

Kansas was and remains the Big 12 title favorite, forever and ever, amen, but this was the first preseason in ages when the Jayhawks didn't appear to have at least one obvious usurper in their midst. Instead, Baylor's surprise rise and Bob Huggins' routine West Virginia brilliance have presented KU with two.

1. Kansas Jayhawks
2. Baylor Bears
3. West Virginia Mountaineers
4. Iowa State Cyclones
5. Texas Tech Red Raiders
6. Kansas State Wildcats
7. TCU Horned Frogs
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys
9. Oklahoma Sooners
10. Texas Longhorns

Big East

With the possible exception of the Big 12 -- where impressive starts among nonfavorites extended all the way down to Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma State and Kansas State -- few leagues have had a better two months than the Big East, where Villanova, Xavier, Butler and Creighton all have it rolling.

1. Villanova Wildcats
2. Butler Bulldogs
3. Creighton Bluejays
4. Xavier Musketeers
5. Seton Hall Pirates
6. Marquette Golden Eagles
7. Providence Friars
8. Georgetown Hoyas
9. St. John's Red Storm
10. DePaul Blue Demons

Big Ten

The Big Ten table is set for a potentially fascinating three-way title chase between Wisconsin, Purdue and Indiana, a trio so tightly matched that the deciding factor may be the league's imbalanced schedule. Indiana will have the biggest gripe: The Hoosiers go on the road for four of their last five games, and play the Boilers and Badgers twice each, while the latter two meet just once -- Jan. 8 in West Lafayette, Indiana.

1. Purdue Boilermakers
2. Wisconsin Badgers
3. Indiana Hoosiers
4. Michigan Wolverines
5. Ohio State Buckeyes
6. Northwestern Wildcats
7. Michigan State Spartans
8. Maryland Terrapins
9. Minnesota Golden Gophers
10. Iowa Hawkeyes
11. Illinois Fighting Illini
12. Nebraska Cornhuskers
13. Penn State Nittany Lions
14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Pac-12

The Mase Memorial "Welcome Back" Award goes to the UCLA Bruins, who haven't had a team this good since Mase was still making semi-relevant music (i.e., the mid-aughts). And if the Lonzo Ball/ TJ Leaf-fueled Bruins' success itself wasn't enough, there's the bonus that one of last season's least watchable teams has become one of the decade's most enjoyable viewing experiences. We lacked faith in October; we've since seen the light.

1. UCLA Bruins
2. Arizona Wildcats
3. Oregon Ducks
4. USC Trojans
5. California Golden Bears
6. Utah Utes
7. Colorado Buffaloes
8. Stanford Cardinal
9. Arizona State Sun Devils
10. Washington Huskies
11. Washington State Cougars
12. Oregon State Beavers

SEC

Florida's offense has lifted the Gators, South Carolina might have the best first-shot defense in college hoops, Texas A&M has played well in close losses to good teams, Arkansas looks frisky, and the bottom of the conference is better across the board ... and Kentucky still looks like it's going to cruise to another SEC title.

1. Kentucky Wildcats
2. Florida Gators
3. South Carolina Gamecocks
4. Arkansas Razorbacks
5. Texas A&M Aggies
6. Georgia Bulldogs
7. Alabama Crimson Tide
8. Vanderbilt Commodores
9. Ole Miss Rebels
10. Tennessee Volunteers
11. LSU Tigers
12. Auburn Tigers
13. Mississippi State Bulldogs
14. Missouri Tigers

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island hasn't exactly lived up to its preseason top-25 billing, but three of the Rams' four losses came in tight true road games and the fourth was to Duke. Excusable, that. At worst, Danny Hurley's team is a co-favorite with Dayton (and maybe VCU); at best it's still the outright pick.

1. Rhode Island Rams
2. Dayton Flyers
3. VCU Rams
4. Davidson Wildcats
5. St. Bonaventure Bonnies
6. Saint Joseph's Hawks
7. Richmond Spiders
8. George Washington Colonials
9. La Salle Explorers
10. George Mason Patriots
11. Massachusetts Minutemen
12. Duquesne Dukes
13. Fordham Rams
14. Saint Louis Billikens

Mountain West

San Diego State lost three straight games, to Loyola Chicago, Grand Canyon and Arizona State -- the last of which came at home, to a team that has been outscored by an average of 22 points in its six losses, and which fell to Kentucky and Purdue by an average of 39.5 points -- and the Aztecs still might be the best team in the Mountain West. Is Jimmer still eligible?

1. San Diego State Aztecs
2. Nevada Wolf Pack
3. Boise State Broncos
4. Fresno State Bulldogs
5. New Mexico Lobos
6. Utah State Aggies
7. Wyoming Cowboys
8. Colorado State Rams
9. UNLV Rebels
10. Air Force Falcons
11. San Jose State Spartans

Missouri Valley

Wichita State may not occupy the elite tier it grew accustomed to in the Fred VanVleet/ Ron Baker era, but coach Gregg Marshall still has his team playing top-20 efficiency defense and the Shockers are still out in front of the Valley by a fairly wide margin. (Unfortunately for the Shockers, they have lost three key nonconference games to their best three opponents, laying the groundwork for a less heated reprise of last season's selection committee nonsense.)

1. Wichita State Shockers
2. Illinois State Redbirds
3. Loyola (Chicago) Ramblers
4. Northern Iowa Panthers
5. Evansville Purple Aces
6. Missouri State Bears
7. Indiana State Sycamores
8. Southern Illinois Salukis
9. Bradley Braves
10. Drake Bulldogs

West Coast Conference

Save one mysterious brickfest (by Saint Mary's, against UT Arlington, in Dec. 8's bizarre 65-51 home loss), Gonzaga and Saint Mary's have lived up to the best-case preseason scenario: The Zags have integrated transfers and reintroduced? Przemek Karnowski?beautifully; the Gaels have kept on playing last season's gorgeous flowing offense; both will have legitimate claims to the WCC throne come March, and now we get to watch them fight over it. Awesome.

1. Gonzaga Bulldogs
2. Saint Mary's Gaels
3. BYU Cougars
4. San Francisco Dons
5. Portland Pilots
6. Loyola Marymount Lions
7. Santa Clara Broncos
8. Pacific Tigers
9. San Diego Toreros
10. Pepperdine Waves

America East

Post-Jameel Warney Stony Brook (4-7) faded even harder than expected, leaving New Hampshire and Albany looking like the two potential threats to ongoing favorite Vermont.

1. Vermont Catamounts
2. New Hampshire Wildcats
3. Albany Great Danes
4. UMBC Retrievers
5. Binghamton Bearcats
6. Stony Brook Seawolves
7. UMass Lowell River Hawks
8. Hartford Hawks
9. Maine Black Bears

Atlantic Sun

This coach Joe Dooley-era edition of Florida Gulf Coast doesn't much play like the Dunk City teams of yore, but these more deliberate Eagles might (gasp) wind up being better.

1. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
2. Jacksonville Dolphins
3. South Carolina Upstate Spartans
4. Lipscomb Bisons
5. NJIT Highlanders
6. North Florida Ospreys
7. Stetson Hatters
8. Kennesaw State Owls

Big Sky

We figured the Big Sky would be wide open, and here we are: Every team in the league has at least four losses, while North Dakota, Montana and Weber State -- our guess at the top three -- have 19 defeats between them. ?\_(?)_/?

1. North Dakota Fighting Hawks
2. Weber State Wildcats
3. Montana Grizzlies
4. Eastern Washington Eagles
5. Idaho Vandals
6. Portland State Vikings
7. Montana State Bobcats
8. Northern Colorado Bears
9. Idaho State Bengals
10. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
11. Sacramento State Hornets
12. Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Big South

Winthrop might be playing the best hoop of coach Pat Kelsey's increasingly impressive tenure at the program (see Nov. 21's road win at Illinois).

1. Winthrop Eagles
2. UNC Asheville Bulldogs
3. Gardner-Webb Bulldogs
4. High Point Panthers
5. Campbell Camels
6. Radford Highlanders
7. Liberty Flames
8. Charleston Southern Buccaneers
9. Longwood Lancers
10. Presbyterian College Blue Hose

Big West

Long Beach State coach Dan Monson's typically masochistic nonconference schedule has seen the 49ers play at Wichita State, Louisville, UCLA, Washington, Kansas and Texas, which is how a 5-10 team might still be the favorite (though hardly an obvious one) to win its conference title.

1. Long Beach State 49ers
2. UC Irvine Anteaters
3. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
4. UC Davis Aggies
5. Cal Poly Mustangs
6. CS Northridge Matadors
7. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
8. CS Fullerton Titans
9. UC Riverside Highlanders

Colonial Athletic Association

UNC Wilmington enters Wednesday's road trip to Clemson with a legitimate shot at beating a good Tigers team. That's how solid the Seahawks, and their top-30-ish offense, have been so far. For what it's worth, Charleston is nearly as good on the defensive end.

1. UNC Wilmington Seahawks
2. Charleston Cougars
3. William & Mary Tribe
4. Elon Phoenix
5. Northeastern Huskies
6. Towson Tigers
7. Hofstra Pride
8. Drexel Dragons
9. Delaware Blue Hens
10. James Madison Dukes

Conference USA

Middle Tennessee won at Ole Miss and drilled Vanderbilt ( 71-48!) on its own floor; the Blue Raiders obviously enjoyed their taste of the NCAA tournament last season and would like to reserve another table as soon as possible.

1. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
2. Rice Owls
3. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
4. Old Dominion Monarchs
5. Marshall Thundering Herd
6. UAB Blazers
7. Charlotte 49ers
8. Florida Atlantic Owls
9. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
10. Florida Intl Golden Panthers
11. North Texas Mean Green
12. UT San Antonio Roadrunners
13. UTEP Miners
14. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

Horizon League

Valparaiso didn't show well in either of its two high-profile nonconference road trips to Oregon and Kentucky, but the Crusaders did beat Alabama and BYU in Las Vegas, and Alec Peters is still a beast.

1. Valparaiso Crusaders
2. Oakland Golden Grizzlies
3. Northern Kentucky Norse
4. Wright State Raiders
5. Green Bay Phoenix
6. UIC Flames
7. Cleveland State Vikings
8. Youngstown State Penguins
9. Milwaukee Panthers
10. Detroit Titans

Ivy League

Two Ivy League teams boast winning records: Brown, which beat a bunch of horrendous teams, and Yale, which sprinkled a few significantly less-bad ingredients into the mix. Meanwhile Princeton might still be the best team in the league? Maybe? Who knows.

1. Yale Bulldogs
2. Princeton Tigers
3. Penn Quakers
4. Harvard Crimson
5. Brown Bears
6. Columbia Lions
7. Cornell Big Red
8. Dartmouth Big Green

MAAC

Monmouth barely fell at South Carolina in OT Nov. 15, likely dooming whatever small chance of a 2015 Monmouth bench reprise the Hawks might have unleashed. But star guard? Justin Robinson's quieter and less viral teammates are playing just as well, and maybe even better, than a season ago.

1. Monmouth Hawks
2. Iona Gaels
3. Siena Saints
4. Canisius Golden Griffins
5. Fairfield Stags
6. Rider Broncs
7. Saint Peter's Peacocks
8. Niagara Purple Eagles
9. Quinnipiac Bobcats
10. Marist Red Foxes
11. Manhattan Jaspers

MAC

An Akron preseason pick still looks like it could hold up, but MACtion is no longer reserved for the football folks -- both of this league's divisions are tight and competitive and very much open to further review.

East
1. Akron Zips
2. Ohio Bobcats
3. Buffalo Bulls
4. Kent State Golden Flashes
5. Bowling Green Falcons
6. Miami (Ohio) RedHawks

West
1. Eastern Michigan Eagles
2. Central Michigan Chippewas
3. Northern Illinois Huskies
4. Toledo Rockets
5. Ball State Cardinals
6. Western Michigan Broncos

MEAC

As of Dec. 22, North Carolina Central was not only the lone team in the MEAC with a winning record (7-5), but the only team in the league with more than three wins.

1. North Carolina Central Eagles
2. Howard Bison
3. Norfolk State Spartans
4. South Carolina State Bulldogs
5. Hampton Pirates
6. Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks
7. Morgan State Bears
8. Savannah State Tigers
9. Delaware State Hornets
10. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
11. North Carolina A&T Aggies
12. Coppin State Eagles
13. Florida A&M Rattlers

Northeast Conference

LIU Brooklyn is 7-6 and beat St. John's. Good enough for us!

1. LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds
2. Wagner Seahawks
3. Sacred Heart Pioneers
4. Robert Morris Colonials
5. Bryant Bulldogs
6. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
7. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
8. Saint Francis (Pa.) Red Flash
9. St. Francis (Brooklyn) Terriers
10. Central Connecticut Blue Devils

Ohio Valley

Austin Peay was our preseason No. 2 in the Ohio Valley's West Division and might wind up being the worst team in the entire league, and so it is with a heavy heart and a grim visage that we beseech thee: Let's go, Peay.

East
1. Belmont Bruins
2. Tennessee State Tigers
3. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
4. Eastern Kentucky Colonels
5. Morehead State Eagles
6. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

West
1. Murray State Racers
2. Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
3. Eastern Illinois Panthers
4. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
5. SIU Edwardsville Cougars
6. Austin Peay Governors

Patriot League

Lehigh beat Princeton and looks good on the metrics side of things, particularly on the offensive end, and the record is softened by the fact that all five losses came by single-digit margins in true road tilts. Bucknell did win at Vanderbilt, though. Hmm.

1. Lehigh Mountain Hawks
2. Bucknell Bison
3. Boston University Terriers
4. Holy Cross Crusaders
5. Loyola (Md.) Greyhounds
6. Army West Point
7. Navy Midshipmen
8. Colgate Raiders
9. Lafayette Leopards
10. American Eagles

Southern Conference

The Mocs, who opened 2016-17 with a win at Tennessee, looked like a no-brainer in October; the rise of East Tennessee State has changed that calculus significantly.

1. Chattanooga Mocs
2. East Tennessee State Buccaneers
3. UNC Greensboro Spartans
4. Samford Bulldogs
5. Furman Paladins
6. Mercer Bears
7. Wofford Terriers
8. Western Carolina Catamounts
9. VMI Keydets
10. The Citadel Bulldogs

Southland Conference

First-year Stephen F. Austin coach Kyle Keller is still pressing like Brad Underwood's breakthrough teams, but the loss of Thomas Walkup and the rest of last season's seniors is proving even more devastating than we thought when we deferred to the Lumberjacks in November.

1. Sam Houston State Bearkats
2. Texas A&M-CC Islanders
3. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
4. Southeastern Louisiana Lions
5. New Orleans Privateers
6. Northwestern State Demons
7. Incarnate Word Cardinals
8. Houston Baptist Huskies
9. Lamar Cardinals
10. Abilene Christian Wildcats
11. Nicholls Colonels
12. McNeese Cowboys
13. Central Arkansas Bears

Summit League

Fort Wayne got arguably the best win in school history in November, when it upended classic in-state big boy Indiana? 71-68?in overtime. Also, they're called the Mastodons. Mastodons are rad.

1. Fort Wayne Mastodons
2. North Dakota State Bison
3. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4. IUPUI Jaguars
5. Denver Pioneers
6. Omaha Mavericks
7. South Dakota Coyotes
8. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
9. Western Illinois Leathernecks

Sun Belt

As mentioned in the WCC section, UT Arlington won by 14 in Moraga, California, against ranked Saint Mary's on Dec. 8 -- one of the most impressive nonconference wins any team has had all season. The Sun Belt is sneaky interesting these days.

1. UT-Arlington Mavericks
2. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
3. Georgia State Panthers
4. Little Rock Trojans
5. Arkansas State Red Wolves
6. Georgia Southern Eagles
7. South Alabama Jaguars
8. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
9. Troy Trojans
10. Texas State Bobcats
11. Appalachian State Mountaineers
12. Louisiana Monroe Warhawks

SWAC

Coach Mike Davis' Texas Southern team has yet to play a home game ... but did beat Rice and La Salle in a four-day span in November. Not too shabby.

1. Texas Southern Tigers
2. Southern Jaguars
3. Jackson State Tigers
4. Alcorn State Braves
5. Prairie View A&M Panthers
6. Grambling State Tigers
7. Alabama State Hornets
8. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
9. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
10. Alabama A&M Bulldogs

WAC

This feels like a two-team showdown between New Mexico State and CSU Bakersfield, but Grand Canyon did topple San Diego State, and coach "Thunder" Dan Majerle is not to be taken lightly.

1. New Mexico State Aggies
2. CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners
3. Grand Canyon Antelopes
4. UMKC Kangaroos
5. Utah Valley Wolverines
6. Seattle Redhawks
7. UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
8. Chicago State Cougars