The wait has been long -- 13 days for the Seattle Sounders and 10 for Toronto FC by the time kickoff comes around -- but MLS Cup 2016 finally arrives on Saturday in Toronto.
In a matchup of former expansion teams -- neither of which have appeared in the championship match, much less won the title -- the energy figures to be high. Toronto is on the verge of establishing itself as an elite MLS team after 10 years of mediocrity, while Seattle is just 90 minutes way from a championship that seemed impossible for most of the regular season.
Toronto FC
Strength: Forward play
With Jozy Altidore in the best form of his career, and Sebastian Giovinco capable of changing a game at any moment, Toronto boasts a pair of forwards as good as any in MLS. Altidore makes TFC go with his hold-up play and unique passing ability, while Giovinco excels in one-on-one situations with the ball at his feet. Both forwards are wont to drop into midfield to impact the game, forcing defenders to make a difficult choice about when to follow. Toronto wants to pull a defense apart and is best when they achieve that feat.
Weakness: Dealing with speed on defense
The 3-5-2 system Greg Vanney has come to rely on in these playoffs helps TFC through the midfield and on the attacking end, but it does have a prominent weakness. If wing-backs Steven Beitashour and Justin Morrow are playing higher up the field, it puts pressure on Eriq Zavaleta and Nick Hagglund to keep an eye on speedy threats from wide positions. Dominic Oduro victimized Toronto with his bursts in behind the line, and Toronto is likely to have just as much to deal with from Seattle rookie Jordan Morris.
X factor: Tosaint Ricketts
Ricketts isn't even likely to start based on the first team Vanney has chosen in the past two playoff matches, but the Canadian international has proven capable of impacting a game in significant ways off the bench. Whether TFC needs a goal, has a lead or finds itself level after an hour, Ricketts's injection of energy, industry and goal threat is a wrinkle Vanney can use to throw Seattle off its game. Ricketts as a super-sub can apply high pressure while Giovinco and Altidore drop deeper to find the ball and help slow Seattle down from back to front.
Why Toronto will win
Home-field advantage is very real, especially with the temperature expected to be chilly and a crowd of 35,000-plus Reds fans. That, combined with the confidence TFC carries with it from its dispatching of Montreal in the second leg of the Eastern Conference finals, is enough to lead the hosts to victory. Toronto will need an excellent defensive game in front of Clint Irwin to prevail, but even if the Reds do fall behind or find themselves in need of a big scoring day to come out on top, they've proven themselves more than capable.
Seattle Sounders
Strength: Midfield play
Morris and Lodeiro will get headlines, but it's Osvaldo Alonso and the emergent Cristian Roldan that really make the Sounders go. Alonso is among the elite of MLS defensive midfielders, both because of his ability to break up opponents' play and because of his near-perfect passing abilities. Roldan's development into a top-notch two-way player has freed up Alonso to focus on protecting the back line and springing Seattle forward. The second-year pro has improved his own defensive abilities to the point that head coach Brian Schmetzer can trust him to control the middle of the field as part of the double pivot.
Weakness: Road form
Seattle outlasted the Rapids in the Western Conference final, but the Sounders made the job a difficult one on the road in Denver. Against Colorado, altitude and the lead they carried with them from the first leg played a large role in their approach to the second leg, so while they won't have either factor affecting their approach in Toronto, there are concerns they'll face at BMO Field. TFC is likely to come out fast and with the majority of possession thanks to the partisan crowd, and the cold weather might make things just a little uncomfortable. Schmetzer will have to do something he hasn't had to do yet in this postseason: create an effective game plan for a one-off playoff match in a hostile environment.
X factor: Nelson Valdez
The much-maligned striker has played a prominent role in the playoffs with a pair of goals. His contributions putting the ball in the net come after a season in which he failed to score even once, a remarkably poor record for a designated player. Valdez's first full season in MLS wasn't a success by any stretch, but the faith Schmetzer placed in the Paraguayan means he's almost certain to be on the field for the final in Toronto. If Valdez can again find his scoring boots in a big match, it could go a long way toward securing the Sounders their first-ever MLS Cup trophy.
Why Seattle will win
The Sounders have the midfield strength and the goalscorers to overcome the away environment in Toronto. With Morris's speed and Lodeiro's creative play, there are bound to be chances for the men in green. A physically imposing and aerially dominant back line with Chad Marshall and Roman Torres can handle even the best of what Altidore has to offer. With Morris, Joevin Jones and others providing speed and danger from wide positions, the Sounders can pin back Toronto and dictate enough stretches of the game to come out on top when the whistle blows for 90 minutes.