UP polls 2017: BJP may find going tough as euphoria ends, reality dawns

LUCKNOW: With just 19,143 ATMs, only double of those in Delhi but catering to almost 20 times more population than the national capital, Uttar Pradesh seems worst affected by the demonetisation crisis. Its political fallout now threatens to derail BJP’s chances in the big battle of 2017 if the situation persists into the new year.
ET spoke to senior leaders of all major parties, top bureaucrats and police officers — many spoke on the condition of anonymity — to piece together the big picture where initial euphoria is slowly metamorphising into anger and frustration as the queues are not shortening.“Lucknow ka aadmi mauj aur aaram mein rehta hai...usse line mein khada hona pasand nahi hai. Woh ghar baith jayega par ab BJP ko vote nahi dalega, if this situation persists for two more weeks or so. (People in Lucknow are somewhat laidback and live a slow life. They don’t like to stand in queues. They will sit at home but not go and vote for BJP),” a senior political leader told ET. He said there were intelligence reports with the government of RSS workers also standing in queues and motivating people to not be restive or criticise the move - but the patience seems to be running out.
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“Mohbhang ho raha hai (the euphoria is now fizzling out),” he said. The banking penetration is poor, compounding the problems. UP has just 18,000-odd bank branches and 19,143 ATMs to cater to over 20 cr people. Delhi with 1.2 cr people has 9,070 ATMs while Maharashtra with 11 cr population has nearly 25,000 ATMs.
“But the real problem is banks have no cash. We have reports of queues of 400 people or more in towns and villages and the sudden announcement of cash finishing leading to people becoming aggressive. The problem is more acute in Eastern UP,” says UP Additional DG (Law & Order) Daljit Singh Chawdhary, the nodal officer to handle demonetisation law and order issues. Each day, he gets SOS calls from 2-3 bank bosses. “Nearly 40,000 policemen - that is 25% of the state police strength - are posted at banks. “But for the police, many banks would have been vandalised by now. UP DGP Javeed Ahmad has told policemen to exercise restraint and not do a lathicharge,” a state bureaucrat told ET.
Ahead of elections, both SP and BSP are sensing anger against the BJP among people and going for the kill. Mayawati in a big rally on Tuesday in Lucknow asked people to punish the BJP for putting them into endless queues. UP CM Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav have already criticised the implementation and said people are suffering for no fault of theirs. The UP CM has, in fact, done a first for any state by announcing Rs 2 lakh compensation for people who have died in bank queues. Unverified reports put the number of deaths at 30 in UP out of 85-odd in the country. Three UP cases are now verified.
Congress has supported Akhilesh’s move while the BJP is terming SP’s compensation as appeasement and is criticising it for not properly managing banks. “Mayawati is the most impacted by demonetisation, is rattled and hence criticising PM,” says BJP state chief Keshav Prasad Maurya. A senior BJP leader, on the condition of anonymity, however admits they have a problem at hand. “The possibility of the political disadvantage for BJP in villages is higher than in urban centers. The nationalist campaign will cover up for demonetisation implementation inadequacies there...but the more the time lapses the more the damage in rural UP. This message has gone to the BJP top brass in Delhi,” the BJP leader said.
Also Read: Also Read: Demonetisation: Will bank queues recede in the new year? May be, may be not
A senior SP leader said they plan to drive home the inconvenience factor in rural UP. “The illiterate villager does not know how to use a debit card. There are high chances of people defrauding him. Sowing season is affected and people are angry over being made to do marriages within Rs 2.5 lakh limit,” the SP leader said. There is also buzz that UP polls may be delayed till April due to demonetisation crisis.
Interestingly, rallies of big BJP leaders are on track though ground reports speak of far less crowds at its Parivartan Yatras. “The real surgical strike of demonetisation has not been on black money but on the BJP yatras. In comparison, see the big crowd at Behenji’s rally in Lucknow just 2 days ago,” a senior BSP leader chuckles. PM Narendra Modi has postponed his rally in Lucknow to January 2 instead of December 24 - the culminatiom day of all 4 Parivartan Yatras.
The talk in Lucknow is that this will give PM an opportunity to lay the report card of demonetisation before the voters in the New Year after his appeal of support till December 30 for the move ends. The million dollar question is whether the UP voter will pass Modi in the test come 2017.