Mexico's war on drugs: what has it achieved and how is the US involved?

Why did Mexico launch its war on drugs?

On 10 December 2006, the newly inaugurated president, Felipe Calderón, launched Mexico’s war on drugs by sending 6,500 troops into his home state of Michoacán, where rival cartels were engaged in tit-for-tat massacres as they battled over lucrative territory. The surge in violence had started in 2005, and a string of police and military operations by his predecessor Vicente Fox had failed to stem the bloodshed.

Calderón declared war eight days after taking power – a move widely seen as an attempt to boost his own legitimacy after a bitterly contested election victory. Within two months, around 20,000 troops were involved in operations across the country which initially attracted widespread support from communities tired of gun battles, gruesome execution-style murders and corrupt police.

What has the war cost so far?

The US has donated at least $1.5bn through the Merida Initiative since 2008 (another $1bn has been agreed by Congress – PDF), while Mexico has spent at least $54bn on security and defence since 2007. Critics say that this influx of cash has helped create an opaque security industry open to corruption at every level.

But the biggest costs have been human: since 2007, almost 200,000 people have been murdered and more than 28,000 reported as disappeared. In September 2014, 43 trainee teachers disappeared and are presumed to have been killed after they were attacked by corrupt police officers and handed over to drug gang members. The case – in which the Mexican army as well as corrupt politicians were implicated – has become emblematic of the violence perpetrated in heavily militarized zones.

Human rights groups have detailed a vast rise in human rights abuses by security forces who are under pressure to make arrests, obtain confessions and justify the war. Reports of torture by security forces increased by 600% between 2003 and 2013, according to Amnesty International.

As the cartels have fractured and diversified, other violent crimes such as kidnapping and extortion have also surged. In 2010, the Los Zetas cartel – founded by a group of Special Forces deserters – massacred 72 migrants who were kidnapped while trying to reach the US.

Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced by violence, and self-defence or vigilante groups have emerged in several states including Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacán, as communities have taken up arms in an attempt to protect themselves. Some of those militias have in turn been targeted by state forces or co-opted by organized crime.

What has been achieved?

Improved collaboration between US and Mexican intelligence and security services has resulted in numerous high-profile arrests and drug busts. Officials say 25 of the 37 drug traffickers on Calderón’s most wanted list have been jailed, extradited to the US or killed, although not all of these actions have been independently corroborated. More than 110,000 tonnes of cocaine was decommissioned and almost 180,000 hectares (444,790 acres) of marijuana and poppies destroyed during Calderón’s term.

Since Calderón’s successor, Enrique Peña Nieto, took power in December 2012, 101 of his administration’s 122 most wanted capos are dead or in custody; again, not all the reported deaths and detentions have been independently corroborated.

The biggest victory – and most embarrassing blunder – under Peña Nieto’s leadership was the recapture, escape and another recapture of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, leader of the Sinaloa cartel. Guzmán is fighting extradition to the US, though this appears increasingly futile. Meanwhile, his rivals are making audacious moves to annex his lucrative routes, generating a new wave of violence in states such as Colima, Baja California and Sinaloa.

The crackdown and capture of kingpins has won praise from the media and US, but it has done little to reduce the violence or establish the rule of law.

How has the war evolved?

Under pressure from the authorities, some crime factions have splintered – only to regroup and re-emerge as smaller, often more ruthless groups.

Meanwhile, new battlegrounds have sprung up in previously peaceful states as military operations incited gangs to find new smuggling routes in rival territories.

Calderon’s policies have remained largely intact under Peña Ñieto – even though the rhetoric changed significantly in an attempt to rehabilitate Mexico’s desperate image and attract foreign investment.

“Whereas the Calderón administration was obsessed with security, President Peña Nieto has been obsessed with not being obsessed with security,” the security expert David Shirk has said.

Under the current government, the security and defense budget has continued to rise, and so has the bloodshed. About 63,000 people were murdered in the first half of Pena Nieto’s term – 50% more than in Calderon’s first three years.

And huge quantities of drugs continue to make their way into the US. Drug consumption in the US – the world’s biggest market – continues to steadily rise with 24.6m recent users in 2013 – equating to 9.4% of the population over 12 years old, compared with 8.3% in 2002.

Drug trends tend to wax and wane, in part reflecting the focus of law enforcement efforts, so while cocaine use has gone down slightly down, marijuana, heroin and methamphetamines are on the upswing.

The legalization of marijuana in a growing number of US states will reduce demand from Mexico, but the rest of the market is booming. Mexican drug cartels are estimated to make between $19bn and $29bn annually from US drug sales.

What role has the US played?

The “war on drugs” doctrine is largely credited to President Richard Nixon, who created the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) in 1973 to declare “an all-out global war on the drug menace”. Since then, the US has spent more than $2.5tn battling this indeterminate enemy through prohibition and militarization. Over the past four decades, the US model has been exported to Latin America – most notably Colombia and Mexico.

Mexico’s decade-long war on drugs would never have been possible without the huge injection of American cash and military cooperation under the Merida Initiative. The funds have continued to flow despite growing evidence of serious human rights violations.